Soybean prices stabilize during the period

Soybean futures fell precipitously as a result of fund selling and short selling, as well as decreased demand and more supply following Brazil's record soybean harvest. Although being harvested 30% later than usual, the yield has risen to roughly 50 million metric tons, which is projected to compensate for Argentina's drought losses.

The weather in Brazil has seen some variability over the past week. Argentina's drought also tends to return in the last week of February to early March. The early-season dryness is expected to cause widespread damage to the country's soybean production.

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), South American soybean production is predicted to be about 153 million metric tons this year, up from 129.5 million tons last year, which is the biggest production in history. As a result, the price of soybeans has been pushed down due to a decline in demand for soybean exports in the United States, as well as a previous slowdown in sales.

In terms of export inspection volume, both weekly and yearly volumes are decreasing. However, the overall export rate and predicted second half of the 2022/23 marketing year will stay greater than 2021/22, with China and Mexico being the leading export destinations last week.

Brazil's exports are forecast to reach 92 million metric tons, up from 79.1 million tons the previous year. The United States, on the other hand, will be able to harvest 116.4 million tons of soybeans and export 54.2 million tons this year, down from 121.5 million tons and 58.7 million tons respectively.

Soybean futures for May delivery fell 9.75 cents to $15.03 per bushel overnight, while soybean meal prices fell $4.30 to $477.50 per ton. Soybean oil, on the other hand, fell 0.21 cents to 60.13 cents a pound due to investor sell-offs, including a lack of export demand, despite the fact that Argentina's soybean production has decreased due to drought.

As for the US soybean outlook for 2022/23 this month, while soybean exports stay unchanged, soybean stocks are predicted to be 225 million bushels, up 15 million bushels from last month, with the average US seasonal soybean price forecast at $14.30 per bushel, up 10 cents from last month. Soybean meal prices are predicted to rise by $ 25 per ton to $ 450.00, while soybean oil prices are expected to remain steady at 68.0 cents per pound.

Due to decreased harvests in Argentina and Ukraine, global production declined by 5.0 million tons to 383.0 million tons for the 2022/23 global soybean demand and supply estimates. Argentina's output declined by 4.5 million tons to 41.0 million tons due to fewer plantations and drought, while Ukraine's output fell by 0.4 million tons due to the loss of arable land.

Global soybean exports have remained almost unchanged. Argentina's exports fell, although this was offset by higher exports from Paraguay and Brazil, while soybean imports grew in Argentina but fell in the European Union due to greater imports of rapeseed and sunflower seeds. Imports to Pakistan have also decreased as a result of limits on licenses to import genetically modified soybeans.

Overall, global soybean inventory declined by 1.5 million tons to 102.0 million tons, with lower South American stockpiles somewhat offset by rising Chinese stocks. The USDA will disclose supply and demand estimates again on March 8. Meanwhile, the same data from CONAB (The National Supply Corporation of Brazil) for Brazilian crops is set to be issued on March 9.

Data for Technical Analysis (1H)

Resistance : 1497.83, 1499.25, 1501.54

Support : 1493.25, 1491.83, 1489.54                

1H Outlook  

Source: Investing.com                           

Buy/Long 1 If the support at the price range 1490.25 - 1493.25 is touched, but the support at 1493.25 cannot be broken, the TP may be set around 1498.00 and the SL around 1489.00, or up to the risk appetite.

Buy/Long 2 If the resistance can be broken at the price range of 1497.83 - 1500.83, TP may be set around 1504.00 and SL around 1493.00, or up to the risk appetite.       

Sell/Short 1 If the resistance at the price range 1497.83 - 1500.83 is touched, but the resistance 1497.83 cannot be broken, the TP may be set around 1492.00 and the SL around 1502.00, or up to the risk appetite.

Sell/Short 2 If the support can be broken at the price range of 1490.25 - 1493.25, TP may be set around 1487.00 and SL around 1498.00, or up to the risk appetite.       

Pivot Points Mar 02, 2023 02:38AM GMT

Sources: Brownfield Ag News, Successful Farming