Thai baht may be more vulnerable
Yesterday at 19:30, the announcement of the core consumer price index (Core CPI) and consumer price index (CPI) showed results in line with expectations with Core CPI at 5.5% and CPI at 6% increasing by 0.5%MOM and 0.4%MOM.
This announcement resulted in the dollar strengthening to a price of 34.499 THB/USD (at 09:17 AM. GMT+7), with the highest point of the day at 34.608 THB/USD and the lowest point at 34.474 THB/USD. There was not much volatility as the CPI was as expected but ultimately the market has speculated on an interest rate hike of 0.25% or 0.5% due to the strong labor market.
In the fourth quarter of Thailand, the economy expanded by only 1.4% while exports declined by 10.5% compared to the third quarter that showed a negative growth of 1.5%. This resulted in Thailand's GDP expanding only 2.6% in 2022 lower than the expected 3.2% this is another factor contributing to the weakness of the baht in the past month. It is expected that Thailand's exports in the next quarter may not improve significantly due to the problem of inflation and the weak economy.
Thailand's interest rates are set in policy meetings six times a year compared to the United States interest rate policy meetings are held more frequently. As of March 3, 2023 Thailand's CPI had decreased to only 3.79%, which is lower than expected resulting in an interest rate hike in Thailand likely to be postponed to customer.
Mr. Sorchai Sunetra, Deputy CIO of SCB said that " dollar is expected to strengthen in the short term, leading to a weaker Thai baht, following the Federal Reserve's signal that it will continue to fight inflation by raising interest rates. It is also expected that the FED will raise interest rates for the last time in May. Meanwhile investing in US government bonds still offers better returns than in Thailand that could result in another weakening of the Thai baht."
Technical analysis data (1H)
Source: Investing.com
Pivot Point March 15, 2023 at 7:26 PM. GMT+7
| Name | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot Point | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| Classic | 34.556 | 34.608 | 34.656 | 34.708 | 34.756 | 34.808 | 34.856 |
| Fibonacci | 34.608 | 34.646 | 34.670 | 34.708 | 34.746 | 34.770 | 34.808 |
| Camarilla | 34.678 | 34.687 | 34.696 | 34.708 | 34.714 | 34.723 | 34.733 |
| Woodie's | 34.556 | 34.608 | 34.656 | 34.708 | 34.756 | 34.808 | 34.856 |
| DeMark's | - | - | 34.683 | 34.721 | 34.783 | - | - |
Technical indicators March 15, 2023 at 7:26 PM. GMT+7
| Name | Value | Action |
| RSI(14) | 64.063 | Buy |
| STOCH(9,6) | 57.923 | Buy |
| STOCHRSI(14) | 90.783 | Overbought |
| MACD(12,26) | 0.032 | Buy |
| ADX(14) | 32.265 | Buy |
| Williams %R | -22.951 | Buy |
| CCI(14) | 157.1758 | Buy |
| ATR(14) | 0.0782 | High Volatillity |
| Highs/Lows(14) | 0.0921 | Buy |
| Ultimate Oscillator | 61.719 | Buy |
| ROC | 0.347 | Buy |
| Bull/Bear Power(13) | 0.1540 | Buy |
|
Buy:10 Sell:0 Natural:0 Summary:Strong buy |
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Source: Investing, ฺBangkokpost, BOT
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