Soybean market trends

Soybean futures fell mostly due to fund sales and technical sell-offs. It has recently risen and fallen in the range between support and resistance. Following a steep reduction in prices since the beginning of March due to Brazil's record crop harvest, the trade contract for the next month has been adjusted up, while the following months are declining. More than 60% of Brazil's crop has now been harvested, and the country's yield is estimated to reach 155 million tons, up 2 million from the previous projection. Brazil's exports are forecast to reach a record high of 96 million tons.

Changes in U.S. soybean consumption and supply for 2022/23 are driven by greater exports and reduced stocks compared to last month's report, according to the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. US soybean exports increased by 25 million bushels in February due to higher-than-expected deliveries. As a result, stockpiles declined by 15 million bushels to 210 million bushels, a seven-year low.

In addition, with relatively strong domestic demand for soybean oil, US soybean oil exports dropped 200 million pounds to 500 million pounds, the lowest on record.

The average US soybean price projection for 2022/23 remained steady at $14.30 per bushel. Soybean meal prices are predicted to rise by $15 to $465 per metric ton, while soybean oil prices are expected to fall two cents to 66.0 cents per pound.

Forecasts for global oilseed demand and supply in 2022/23 are constrained by declining output and stocks. Global oilseed output declined by 6.8 million tons due to reduced soybean and sunflower production in Argentina, which was largely offset by increased rapeseed yields in Australia. Argentina's soybean output declined by 8.0 million tons due to hot and dry weather, while Uruguay's soybean output fell by 0.2 million tons.

Due to increased rapeseed and soybean exports, global oilseed commerce increased by 1.9 million tons. Brazil and the United States increased their soybean exports, while Iran and Turkey purchased more soybeans and Argentina imported soybeans to offset some of the output loss.

This week saw a significant increase in the inspection of US soybean shipments. Despite the fact that just half of the market year has elapsed, verified volume has already overtaken that of the previous year. China and Japan account for the majority of export destinations. According to China's customs, imports of soybeans from the United States were 11.59 million tons in January and February, up 15.4% year on year, offsetting a 36% reduction in imports from Brazil last year owing to premature harvest delays and logistics concerns. Given the rising demand for animal feed, China's soybean imports are estimated to total 97 million tons in 2023/24.

The price of soybean meal fluctuated. Meanwhile, soybean oil prices fell on fuel demand uncertainties connected to recent broader economic conditions, following a recent comeback from predictions of increasing demand from global supply of biofuels and vegetable oils, which is likely to tighten in the second half of the year.

The next USDA Supply and Demand Estimates report will be issued on April 11, while the CONAB report from Brazil will be issued on April 13.

Data for Technical Analysis (1H)

Resistance : 1464.24, 1464.60, 1465.17

Support : 1463.10, 1462.74, 1462.17         

1H Outlook

15Min Outlook

Source: Investing.com                         

Buy/Long 1 If the support at the price range 1461.10 - 1463.10 is touched, but the support at 1463.10 cannot be broken, the TP may be set around 1464.34 and the SL around 1460.00, or up to the risk appetite.

Buy/Long 2 If the resistance can be broken at the price range of 1464.24 - 1466.24, TP may be set around 1468.50 and SL around 1463.00, or up to the risk appetite.       

Sell/Short 1 If the resistance at the price range 1464.24 - 1466.24 is touched, but the resistance 1464.24 cannot be broken, the TP may be set around 1463.00 and the SL around 1468.00, or up to the risk appetite.

Sell/Short 2 If the support can be broken at the price range of 1461.10 - 1463.10, TP may be set around 1459.70 and SL around 1465.00, or up to the risk appetite.       

Pivot Points Mar 22, 2023 04:40AM GMT

Sources: Brownfield Ag News, Hellenic Shipping News