USD/CNY Analysis March 30, 2023

USD/CNY Analysis March 30, 2023
Create at 1 year ago (Mar 30, 2023 16:25)

China continues various ongoing problems.

Currently, the Chinese government has a significantly increasing national debt of a total value of 9 trillion US dollars which is one of the biggest threats to sustainable growth in the world's second-largest economy.


Beijing has stated that tackling the hidden risks associated with this debt is one of the main priorities of the government this year. At the same time, the government is also prioritizing job creation in an economy still reeling from the high cost of COVID-19 lockdowns, travel restrictions and other control measures.


In the country's impoverished regions more people and private businesses are migrating to urban areas placing a greater burden on local governments to provide job opportunities. While they struggle to increase revenue through income taxes and state land sales, regions like Gansu and Yunnan as well as the Greater Bay Area are expected to have the highest number of government jobs available in China this year, according to reports from Offcn Education Technology Co., the country's largest public examination prep service provider.


Gansu, located in the dry and remote northwest of China, plans to hire 4,249 government employees, an increase of almost 80% from last year. Meanwhile, Yunnan and Guangxi in the country's southern border areas will increase their staff by 5,696 and 6,781 people, respectively, representing a 59% and 55% increase from the previous year.


According to financial media Caixin, the total number of jobs added in 31 provinces, regions, and municipalities in mainland China is approximately 190,000 positions, representing a 16% increase from 2022.


Additionally, a research report by TF Securities found that local governments with the highest job increases also have the highest debt levels. For example, Yunnan's debt-to-revenue ratio reached 1,087% last year which was the highest among all provincial economies while Gansu ranked third with 970% and Guangxi fifth with 910%. 


Nie Wen, an economist at Hwabao Trust in Shanghai, commented that "if the sale of land by local governments in these regions continues to be weak, the government's large-scale hiring will not be sustainable."


In his first statement as the new Chinese premier earlier this month, Li Keqiang said that the country's top priority is "employment" with the government aiming to create 12 million jobs, up from 11 million last year. However, the country's GDP growth target is set at around 5% this year as per the conservative approach.


China needs to create jobs for the 11.58 million college graduates expected to enter the workforce this year, which is a heavy task during a period of high unemployment. The unemployment rate for those aged 16 to 24 is at its highest historical level of 18.1%.


The jobs that residents of Guangzhou, Yunnan and Guangxi are currently seeking are mostly in the legal, finance and accounting departments, and the qualifications required for these jobs are more aligned with graduate-level education.


In addition to central government funds, many localities in China still rely on Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) to raise additional funds from the debt market for infrastructure projects. 


The total debt of China's LGFVs has reached a historical high of 66 trillion yuan ($9.5 trillion), up from 57 trillion yuan last year, according to a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last month.

Technical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 6.8990, 6.9167, 6.9256
 
Support: 6.8724, 6.8635, 6.8458
 
USD/CNY Analysis today
Source: Investing.com
 
Pivot Points March 30, 2023 06:03 PM GMT+7
 
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 6.8458 6.8635 6.8724 6.8901 6.8990 6.9167 6.9256
Fibonacci 6.8635 6.8737 6.8799 6.8901 6.9003 6.9065 6.9167
Camarilla 6.8740 6.8764 6.8789 6.8901 6.8837 6.8862 6.8886
Woodie's 6.8414 6.8613 6.8680 6.8879 6.8946 6.9145 6.9212
DeMark's - - 6.8679 6.8879 6.8946 - -
 

Buy/Long 1: If there is a touch of support at the price range of 6.8635 - 6.8724 but cannot break the support at 6.8724, a TP may be set at around 6.9167 and SL at around 6.8458 or based on acceptable risk.


Buy/Long 2: If resistance at the price range of 6.8990 - 6.9167 can be broken, a TP may be set at around 6.9256 and SL at around 6.8635 or based on acceptable risk.


Sell/Short 1: If there is a touch of resistance at the price range of 6.8990 - 6.9167 but cannot break the resistance at 6.8990, a TP may be set at around 6.8635 and SL at around 6.9256 or based on acceptable risk.


Sell/Short 2: If support at the price range of 6.8635 - 6.8724 can be broken, a TP may be set at around 6.8458 and SL at around 6.9167 or based on acceptable risk.
 
Technical Indicators March 30, 2023 06:03 PM GMT+7

Name Value Action
RSI(14) 48.290 Neutral
STOCH(9,6) 30.342 Sell
STOCHRSI(14) 0.000 Oversold
MACD(12,26) 0.002 Buy
ADX(14) 19.597 Neutral
Williams %R -91.977 Oversold
CCI(14) -94.9702 Sell
ATR(14) 0.0076 Less Volatility
Highs/Lows(14) -0.0041 Sell
Ultimate Oscillator 31.516 Sell
ROC -0.108 Sell
Bull/Bear Power(13) -0.0008 Sell

Buy:1

Sell:6

Neutral:2

Summary:Strong Sell

 
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