Trend of corn prices during this period

The most recent corn price surged due to commercial and technical buying after the price fluctuated throughout the day from intermittent profit taking.

8% of this year's corn crop has already begun in the United States, which is higher than the 5% average but still falls short of the export projection of 10% due to chilly, damp conditions. While rain is predicted in certain parts of Brazil, helping to push record Brazilian corn yields, Argentina's drought continues to damage agriculture.

Corn export demand from the United States has risen in recent weeks and is projected to continue through the summer, but it remains below USDA predictions for the current marketing year through late August. While domestic demand remains strong. Corn exports from the United States were 1,215,221 tons, up 376,056 tons from the previous week and 32,400 tons from the previous year. While Mexico and Japan account for the majority of the grain export destinations. Total US corn exports were 21,423,929 tons through the second half of the marketing year, down from 33,243,361 tons in the same period last year.

However, the Black Sea Grain Initiative, or the agreement between Russia and Ukraine for the safe transport of grain and food from Ukrainian ports, may officially end in mid-May or be extended in the short term unless restrictions on the export of Russian agricultural products are lifted. Although there is still a good risk that Russia would again restrict Ukraine's grain imports, which has historically boosted corn prices in the US and may allow the US to export corn to Egypt rather than Ukraine.

Corn futures contracts surged in price over the last week, with 28,885 long positions opened, the largest since February 28 and up from 24,578 positions the prior week.

The USDA report this month on the outlook for US corn 2022/23 saw imports and use as food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) in the US fall while ending inventories remained stable. Corn imports decreased by 10 million bushels, while corn inventories stayed steady at 1.342 billion bushels, and the average seasonal farm price remained level at $6.60 per bushel.

Global coarse grain output is predicted to fall by 3.3 million tons to 1,436.3 million tons in 2022/23 due to reduced output, trade, and stockpiles compared to the previous month. Foreign corn output is expected to dip due to production restrictions in Argentina, the European Union, Serbia, and Uruguay, offset in part by increased output in Russia.

Argentine yields declined as continuing warm weather in March lowered the probability of delayed corn yields, despite the month's high rains. While corn output in the EU is dropping due to lower production in Hungary, Italy, and Bulgaria, which has been countered by increasing production in Germany and Poland. While Russia's corn production is higher due to an increase in arable land as well as productivity.

During this time period, fewer corn exports are expected from Argentina, Mexico, Myanmar, and Serbia, while increasing corn exports are expected from Ukraine and Russia. Meanwhile, corn imports are forecast to reduce in Egypt, the United States, Thailand, and Venezuela, but to climb in the European Union, Turkey, and Uruguay, while foreign corn stocks fall in Ukraine, the European Union, Mexico, and Serbia, offset in part by rising inventories in Russia and Brazil. This pushed global corn stockpiles down 1.1 million tons from the previous month to 295.3 million tons.

Data for Technical Analysis (1H)

Resistance : 673.23, 673.57, 674.10

Support : 672.17, 671.83, 671.30                            

1H Outlook

Source: Investing.com           

Buy/Long 1 If the support at the price range 671.92 - 672.17 is touched, but the support at 672.17 cannot be broken, the TP may be set around 673.30 and the SL around 671.82, or up to the risk appetite.

Buy/Long 2 If the resistance can be broken at the price range of 673.23 - 673.48, TP may be set around 674.00 and SL around 672.10, or up to the risk appetite.       

Sell/Short 1 If the resistance at the price range 673.23 - 673.48 is touched, but the resistance at 673.23 cannot be broken, the TP may be set around 671.90 and the SL around 673.58, or up to the risk appetite.

Sell/Short 2 If the support can be broken at the price range of 671.92 - 672.17, TP may be set around 671.30 and SL around 673.30, or up to the risk appetite.       

Pivot Points Apr 20, 2023 03:04AM GMT

Sources: Successful Farming, Brownfield Ag News