The Russian economy is showing good signs.
The ruble has strengthened in the past month, partly due to a slight increase in oil prices which has helped boost Russia's export revenue. However, there are still negative outlooks due to investors anticipating the central bank's decision to increase interest rates which will be announced on Friday.
Alexei Antonov from Alor Broker stated in a briefing that Brent crude oil, which is a global benchmark for Russia's main export increased by 0.3% to $82.99 per barrel recovering from levels near $80 per barrel in the previous period.
Additionally, the ruble is expected to receive support from tax payments due at the end of April, which typically lead to exporters converting their foreign currency earnings into rubles to cover local debt obligations. These taxes are due on April 28.
Andrei Kostin, CEO of VTB Bank, stated on the state news channel Russia-24 that "according to our data, the population is selling more foreign currency than they are buying." The ruble has received support from relatively high oil prices this month despite falling to $80 per barrel.
When it comes to Russia's inflation both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI have decreased rapidly. The CPI dropped to 3.5% from 11% in March while the Core CPI dropped to 3.72% from 12.69% in the same month. This may indicate that inflation is no longer a major concern.
However, the discussion of the G7 countries' ban on exports to Russia has created negative pressure on the Russian market. Analysts say that the market is waiting for a decision on interest rates from the central bank of Russia on Friday. According to Reuters' survey analysts expect the interest rate to be kept at 7.5%.
Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the central bank said last week that the inflation risk in Russia needs to decrease to create room for a potential interest rate cut. The bank remains firm and it is possible that the interest rate will remain at 7.5%.
Technical analysis data (5H)
Resistance: 81.7055, 81.7935, 81.9072
Support: 81.5038, 81.3901, 81.3021
Source: Investing.comPivot Points April 26, 2023 04:05 AM GMT+7
| Name | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot Points | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| Classic | 81.3021 | 81.3901 | 81.5038 | 81.5918 | 81.7055 | 81.7935 | 81.9072 |
| Fibonacci | 81.3901 | 81.4672 | 81.5148 | 81.5918 | 81.6688 | 81.7164 | 81.7935 |
| Camarilla | 81.5620 | 81.5805 | 81.5990 | 81.5918 | 81.6360 | 81.6545 | 81.6730 |
| Woodie's | 81.3149 | 81.3965 | 81.5166 | 81.5982 | 81.7183 | 81.7999 | 81.9200 |
| DeMark's | - | - | 81.4469 | 81.5634 | 81.6486 | - | - |
Buy/Long 1: If there is a touch of support in the price range of 81.3901-81.5038 but it is not possible to break the support at 81.5038, TP can be set at around 81.7935 and SL at around 81.3021 or according to the acceptable risk.
Buy/Long 2: If it is possible to break the resistance level in the price range of 81.7055-81.7935, TP can be set at around 81.9072 and SL at around 81.3901 or according to the acceptable risk.
Sell/Short 1: If there is a touch of resistance in the price range of 81.7055-81.7935 but it is not possible to break the resistance at 81.7055, TP can be set at around 81.3901 and SL at around 81.9072 or according to the acceptable risk.
Sell/Short 2: If it is possible to break the support level in the price range of 81.3901-81.5038, TP can be set at around 81.3021 and SL at around 81.7935 or according to the acceptable risk.
Technical Indicators April 26, 2023 04:05 AM GMT+7
| Name | Value | Action |
| RSI(14) | 52.774 | Neutral |
| STOCH(9,6) | 62.234 | Buy |
| STOCHRSI(14) | 88.194 | Overbought |
| MACD(12,26) | -0.050 | Sell |
| ADX(14) | 30.465 | Sell |
| Williams %R | -21.769 | Buy |
| CCI(14) | 56.9222 | Buy |
| ATR(14) | 0.2394 | Less Volatility |
| Highs/Lows(14) | 0.0011 | Buy |
| Ultimate Oscillator | 62.293 | Buy |
| ROC | 0.082 | Buy |
| Bull/Bear Power(13) | 0.1650 | Buy |
|
Buy:7 Sell:2 Neutral:1 Summary:Strong Buy |
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