US corn prices have been under pressure

According to the USDA, for the week ending May 5, US corn export inspections remained lower than expected for the current marketing year. Corn exports from the United States totaled 963,351 tons, a decrease of 555,218 tons from the previous week and 513,895 tons from a year ago, with the primary export destinations being Mexico and Japan. Total corn exports from the United States for the current marketing year are 24,866,729 tons, down from 38,082,798 tons last year.

The USDA reports that 49% of US corn has been planted, up from 26% last week and higher than the five-year average due to better weather conditions for US crops, resulting in corn futures dipping from a two-week high after rebounding higher at the close of last week due to fears that the Black Sea Grain Initiative would expire and not be renewed beyond May 18.

In addition to favorable planting weather conditions for US corn during this period, recent US corn prices have been hard hit by continued dire demand, including from China, which canceled more US corn imports for the third time last week and instead imported the product from Brazil and South Africa.

As escalating geopolitical crises and tensions between China and the US have exacerbated food security concerns, China has been driven to look to other countries to minimize its reliance on grain from the US and Ukraine. It purchased its first 53,000 tons of grain for animal feed from South Africa last week after canceling an order for 562,800 tons of corn from the United States in the last week of April.

Last year, China bought 20.6 million tons of corn for animal feed, with 72% of that coming from the United States. The current proportion of US corn imports, which remains China's top corn exporter, fell to 37.8% in the first quarter of this year, trailed by imports from Brazil and Ukraine. Furthermore, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' most recent assessment, by 2032, China will be able to rely on domestic agricultural output such as corn for up to 96.6% of its yearly imports, cutting imports to 6.85 million tons.

Data for Technical Analysis (5H)

Resistance : 594.88, 595.52, 596.56

Support : 592.80, 592.16, 591.12                                   

5H Outlook

Source: Investing.com                  

Buy/Long 1 If the support at the price range 592.20 - 592.80 is touched, but the support at 592.80 cannot be broken, the TP may be set around 594.75 and the SL around 592.00, or up to the risk appetite.

Buy/Long 2 If the resistance can be broken at the price range of 594.88 - 595.48, TP may be set around 596.75 and SL around 592.50, or up to the risk appetite.       

Sell/Short 1 If the resistance at the price range 594.88 - 595.48 is touched, but the resistance at 594.88 cannot be broken, the TP may be set around 592.30 and the SL around 595.68, or up to the risk appetite.

Sell/Short 2 If the support can be broken at the price range of 592.20 - 592.80, TP may be set around 591.12 and SL around 595.18, or up to the risk appetite.       

Pivot Points May 11, 2023 01:30AM GMT

Sources: Brownfield Ag News,  South China Morning Post