Slumping demand for soybeans continues to depress prices

Recent soybean futures were down after recovering from oversold levels, and export demand slowed as a result of increased production in Brazil and a more favorable farming environment in the US. However, aside from the limited short-term supply, the soybean market has not yet identified any fundamental factors to sustain prices. If the weekly export data somewhat improves, it may help. August is predicted to bring about another significant shift in soybean prices.

According to the May USDA report, the 2023/24 outlook for US soybeans showed increased supply and stockpiles. This includes lower exports compared to 2022/23, with the US soybean harvest expected to increase 5% over the previous year, while soybean supply is expected to increase 4% over 2022/23 due to increased productivity offsetting lower stock.

U.S. soybean exports are expected to fall by 40 million bushels due to increased output in South America and limited global import demand. As a result, US soybean stocks are expected to rise by 120 million bushels in 2023/24, while soybean prices are expected to fall. The seasonal average US soybean price in 2023/24 is expected to be $12.10 per bushel, down from $14.20 in 2022/23.

Global soybean trade increased by 4.0 million tons last year, reflecting rising Chinese demand and increased imports to Pakistan, Egypt, and Bangladesh after decreasing the previous year. China's imports increased by only 2.0 million tons, slower than a decade earlier. With weak growth forecasts for Chinese and EU soybean imports, combined with record supply in South America, US soybean exports to the world are expected to fall, while global soybean stocks are expected to increase by 21.5 million tons from Brazil, Argentina, the United States, and China in 2023/24.

However, worldwide soybean demand declined, particularly from key importers such as China, which uses cheap excess wheat in animal feed, impacting soybean prices during this period. Although worldwide supplies have steadily improved, a stronger US dollar continues to harm US grain exports.

Data for Technical Analysis (5H) 

Resistance : 1327.77, 1329.87, 1333.26

Support : 1320.99, 1318.89, 1315.50                  

5H Outlook

Source: Investing.com                           

Buy/Long 1 If the support at the price range 1319.50 - 1320.99 is touched, but the support at 1320.99 cannot be broken, the TP may be set around 1329.76 and the SL around 1319.00, or up to the risk appetite.

Buy/Long 2 If the resistance can be broken at the price range of 1327.77 - 1328.27, TP may be set around 1335.00 and SL around 1320.19, or up to the risk appetite.       

Sell/Short 1 If the resistance at the price range 1327.77 - 1328.27 is touched, but the resistance 1327.77 cannot be broken, the TP may be set around 1320.88 and the SL around 1328.77, or up to the risk appetite.

Sell/Short 2 If the support can be broken at the price range of 1319.50 - 1320.99, TP may be set around 1314.00 and SL around 1328.57, or up to the risk appetite.       

Pivot Points May 26, 2023 02:18AM GMT

Sources: Brownfield Ag News, REUTERS