USD/EUR Analysis July 4, 2023

USD/EUR Analysis July 4, 2023
Create at 1 year ago (Jul 04, 2023 16:24)

The economic situation in the Eurozone remains challenging.

The Euro currency has remained stable, despite the United States increasing interest rates. The economic indicators for the Eurozone have shown slight improvements, and it is expected that interest rates will be increased further to control inflation and meet the target of 2%.


The forecasted Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates a decrease to 5.6% in June from 6.1% in May. However, the actual CPI figure came in at 5.5%, which is lower than expected. This reduction in CPI has been attributed to lower fuel costs and a slowdown in the increase of food prices. However, Germany is the only country reporting an increase in inflation.


As for the Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, it decreased to 6.8% in June from 6.9% in May. However, within the services sector, prices increased by 5.4% from 5.0%, indicating a rapid recovery of consumer spending and adaptation to higher borrowing costs due to increased interest rates.


The announced data will not change the stance of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB has already confirmed that interest rates will be increased for the ninth time in July and is considering another increase in September. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, has reiterated that interest rates will definitely be increased for the ninth time in July.


From Roman's perspective, it is quite clear that the Federal Reserve is trending towards increasing interest rates again after temporarily halting rate hikes in June. The data released on Thursday showed that the US economy has grown more than initially projected in the first quarter, and the number of people filing for initial jobless benefits has decreased, indicating a resilient labor market.


With the consecutive rate hikes in recent times, REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) in the housing sector are not performing particularly well. This is due to the higher interest rates and a downward trend in office space leasing, along with an increase in remote work.


Apart from concerns about inflation, it is necessary to closely monitor the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures. The PMI for the Eurozone, announced recently, has shown continuous downward adjustments. The manufacturing PMI has decreased for 11 consecutive months, indicating slower employment growth, which hampers improvements in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, this has also impacted business confidence figures in the Eurozone, with confidence dropping to 0.06 in June from 0.19 in May.

Technical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 0.9174, 0.9186, 0.9192

Support: 0.9156, 0.9150, 0.9138

USD/EUR Analysis todaySource: Investing.com
 
Pivot Points June July 4, 2023 04:11 PM GMT+7
 
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 0.9138 0.9150 0.9156 0.9168 0.9174 0.9186 0.9192
Fibonacci 0.9150 0.9157 0.9161 0.9168 0.9175 0.9179 0.9186
Camarilla 0.9158 0.9160 0.9161 0.9168 0.9165 0.9166 0.9168
Woodie's 0.9136 0.9149 0.9154 0.9167 0.9172 0.9185 0.9190
DeMark's - - 0.9154 0.9167 0.9172 - -

Buy/Long 1: If there is a touch of support in the price range of 0.9150 - 0.9156 but it fails to break the resistance at 0.9156, you may consider setting a TP around 0.9186 and a SL around 0.9138 or according to your acceptable risk.

 

Buy/Long 2: If you are able to break the resistance in the price range of 0.9174 - 0.9186, you might set a TP around 0.9192 and an SL around 0.9150 or according to your acceptable risk.

 

Sell/Short 1: If there is a touch of resistance in the price range of 0.9174 - 0.9186 but it fails to break the resistance at 0.9174, you may consider setting a TP around 0.9150 and an SL around 0.9192 or according to your acceptable risk.

 

Sell/Short 2: If you are able to break the support in the price range of 0.9150 - 0.9156, you might set a TP around 0.9138 and an SL around 0.9186 or according to your acceptable risk.

 
Technical Indicators July 4, 2023 04:11 PM GMT+7
 
Name Value Action
RSI(14) 53.687 Neutral
STOCH(9,6) 31.708 Sell
STOCHRSI(14) 43.051 Sell
MACD(12,26) 0.000 Buy
ADX(14) 19.298 Neutral
Williams %R -60.732 Sell
CCI(14) -17.8591 Neutral
ATR(14) 0.0021 Less Volatility
Highs/Lows(14) 0.0000 Neutral
Ultimate Oscillator 46.828 Sell
ROC -0.207 Sell
Bull/Bear Power(13) 0.0003 Buy

Buy:2

Sell:5

Neutral:4

Summary:Sell

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