Ethereum has started to show a downward trend

Ethereum's price has started to stabilize after reaching a high price of 1976.16 ETH/USD, driven by buying pressure from Bitcoin, which is set to have an ETF established as well. However, it has since retraced back to its previous resistance level. This retracement may be due to uncertainty about whether the market will truly turn bullish again, as it failed to break through the previous resistance.

It has been observed that a whale has been accumulating Ethereum consistently, moving a large amount of ETH with a value of around $140 million to leading cryptocurrency brokers such as Coinbase, Kraken, and OKX, according to data from the Ethereum blockchain. The fact that the whale has conducted multiple transactions worth millions of dollars may be another factor contributing to the decline in ETH's price in the past month of June.

Examining transaction data, it was found that 20,000 ETH (valued at $38 million) was transferred from Arbitrum (ARB) to Kraken for exchange into US dollars. Another movement was detected, where 25,264 ETH (valued at $48.3 million) was sent from an unidentified wallet to Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange platform in the United States. Furthermore, there was an additional transfer of 30,000 ETH (almost 57.7 million US dollars) to OKX.

In addition, Ethereum is facing its own challenges as it encounters a decline in its Total Value Locked (TVL). TVL is a measure of the amount of deposited money locked in Ethereum's smart contracts. It has reached its lowest level, experiencing a continuous decrease of 3.1% or approximately 13.7 million ETH from August 2020 to July 4th, according to DefiLlama data.

A continuous decrease in TVL suggests that investors are losing interest in using Ethereum's smart contract ecosystem or are migrating to Layer 2 solutions to benefit from lower transaction fees. Regardless of the method, a sustained decrease in TVL indicates a negative impact on the potential demand for the Ethereum network. It is being interpreted as a bearish market sentiment, and the increase in interest rates this month may further pressure the price of ETH to decline.

Some analysts have argued that the current price of ETH reflects an oversold condition, indicating that it has been heavily discounted at its current price level. However, accurately assessing the true value of ETH is challenging due to the complex monetary policy of Ethereum, especially the transition from Proof of Work (PoW) to Proof of Stake (PoS).

Technical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 1896.32, 1902.69, 1910.05

Support: 1882.59, 1875.23, 1868.86

Source: Investing.com