The Russian ruble has strengthened slightly against the dollar in the past day, after the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) raised interest rates more than expected. The interest rate was raised by 100 basis points, while it was previously expected to be 50 basis points. This increase in interest rates comes as a response to the continuous upward trend in inflation and the need to prevent it from rising further, which could have negative impacts on the already struggling economy.
The current policy interest rate after the CBR's adjustment stands at 8.5%. Although the latest inflation data was a key factor in some analysts' prediction of a rate hike of more than 50 basis points, no one had expected it to be 100 basis points. This unexpected move caused significant market volatility.
However, the announced inflation data also affected household inflation expectations. It was found that consumer inflation surged significantly in July, and the acceleration of consumer prices in Russia made analysts revise their inflation projections higher than before.
Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the Central Bank of Russia, stated that the ruble is linked to increased domestic demand, which is a significant driver of inflation. The strong domestic demand is pushing imports higher while reducing exports continuously. Additionally, the rising oil prices and the export of crude oil, which is a major Russian commodity, should support the Russian ruble. Brent crude oil, the global benchmark for Russian exports, has increased by 0.5% to $80.02 per barrel.
Furthermore, the Central Bank of Russia will intervene in the foreign exchange rate according to the investment policy of the National Wealth Fund (NWF). The first intervention is scheduled to begin on August 1st, with an allocated amount of 300 billion rubles ($3.33 billion) for six months. This move is aimed at being prepared and closely monitoring the situation in the foreign exchange market within the country.
Despite the intervention in the foreign exchange market, looking back at the ruble's fluctuations since the beginning of the year, it has remained consistently weak. Some analysts view this intervention as merely buying time and may not have a lasting impact unless there is a resolution to the ongoing war or currency crisis.
Resistance: 90.3313, 90.6558, 90.8241
Support: 89.8385, 89.6702, 89.3457
| Name | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot Points | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| Classic | 89.3457 | 89.6702 | 89.8385 | 90.1630 | 90.3313 | 90.6558 | 90.8241 |
| Fibonacci | 89.6702 | 89.8584 | 89.9747 | 90.1630 | 90.3513 | 90.4676 | 90.6558 |
| Camarilla | 89.8713 | 89.9165 | 89.9616 | 90.1630 | 90.0520 | 90.0971 | 90.1423 |
| Woodie's | 89.2675 | 89.6311 | 89.7603 | 90.1239 | 90.2531 | 90.6167 | 90.7459 |
| DeMark's | - | - | 89.7543 | 90.1209 | 90.2472 | - | - |
Buy/Long 1: If the price touches the support level in the range of 89.6702 - 89.8385 but fails to break below 89.8385, you may consider setting the Take Profit (TP) around 90.6558 and the Stop Loss (SL) around 89.3457 or based on an acceptable level of risk.
Buy/Long 2: If you can break above the resistance level in the range of 90.3313 - 90.6558, you might consider setting the Take Profit (TP) around 90.8241 and the Stop Loss (SL) around 89.6702 or based on an acceptable level of risk.
Sell/Short 1: If the price touches the resistance level in the range of 90.3313 - 90.6558 but fails to break above 90.3313, you may consider setting the Take Profit (TP) around 89.6702 and the Stop Loss (SL) around 90.8241 or based on an acceptable level of risk.
Sell/Short 2: If you can break below the support level in the range of 89.6702 - 89.8385, you might consider setting the Take Profit (TP) around 89.3457 and the Stop Loss (SL) around 90.6558 or based on an acceptable level of risk.
| Name | Value | Action |
| RSI(14) | 39.424 | Sell |
| STOCH(9,6) | 15.751 | Oversold |
| STOCHRSI(14) | 4.096 | Oversold |
| MACD(12,26) | -0.159 | Sell |
| ADX(14) | 24.474 | Neutral |
| Williams %R | -92.973 | Oversold |
| CCI(14) | -106.1118 | Sell |
| ATR(14) | 0.3222 | Less Volatility |
| Highs/Lows(14) | -0.2877 | Sell |
| Ultimate Oscillator | 32.653 | Sell |
| ROC | -0.655 | Sell |
| Bull/Bear Power(13) | -0.5534 | Sell |
|
Buy:0 Sell:7 Neutral:1 Summary:Strong Sell |
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