USD/CNY Analysis August 8, 2023

USD/CNY Analysis August 8, 2023
Create at 1 year ago (Aug 08, 2023 14:51)

The most significant decrease in investment in China has occurred in history.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China has rapidly declined in the past quarter and shows a continuous downward trend. Foreign investment inflows into China hit a historic low not seen in 25 years, primarily due to concerns over political factors stemming from China's policy of wealth redistribution and increased competition with Western nations. This has raised worries among foreign investors and put pressure on the yuan.


The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) revealed that FDI inflows dwindled to just under $4.9 billion in the second quarter. Meanwhile, Chinese companies' foreign investments resulted in a significant net FDI outflow of $34.1 billion, marking a 5.6% decrease and the sharpest decline in three years.


Tensions have escalated further due to chip supply constraints. In the recent weeks leading up, Japan, the United States, and Europe have limited the sale of high-tech chip manufacturing equipment to Chinese companies. Simultaneously, China has felt the direct impact of reduced exports of raw materials due to the decline in Chinese goods and the contraction of domestic production, influenced by the Zero Covid policy.


John Ramey, a partner at the law firm Bucalter, specializing in international business agreements and manufacturing structures, stated, "I don't have a single client looking to invest in China. Not one, not even a single person. The perspective on China now is diametrically opposed to what it was five years ago. Everyone is looking to sell their China operations or, if they are sourcing from China, they are looking for other places to do it."


China's foreign exchange reserves unexpectedly increased in July, rising by $11.3 billion to $3.204 trillion, surpassing the $3.200 trillion forecast by Reuters analysts and the $3.193 trillion reported in June. Additionally, China's gold reserves also increased to $135.36 billion from $129.93 billion in June.


The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is reportedly considering lowering the required reserve ratio (RRR) in the coming weeks to stimulate domestic economic growth. Simultaneously, the government is exploring measures to ease real estate policies and is working on a plan to address the government's debt issues through the issuance of 650 billion yuan worth of bonds.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 7.2335, 7.2550, 7.2952

Support: 7.1718, 7.1316, 7.1101

 

USD/CNY Analysis todaySource: Investing.com

 

Pivot Points June August 8, 2023 02:43 PM GMT+7
 
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 7.1101 7.1316 7.1718 7.1933 7.2335 7.2550 7.2952
Fibonacci 7.1316 7.1552 7.1697 7.1933 7.2169 7.2314 7.2550
Camarilla 7.1950 7.2007 7.2063 7.1933 7.2177 7.2233 7.2290
Woodie's 7.1195 7.1363 7.1812 7.1980 7.2429 7.2597 7.3046
DeMark's - - 7.1826 7.1987 7.2442 - -

Buy/Long 1: If there is a touch of support in the price range of 7.1316 - 7.1718 but it's not possible to break the support at 7.1718, you may consider setting a Take Profit (TP) around 7.2550 and a Stop Loss (SL) around 7.1101 or based on an acceptable risk level.

 

Buy/Long 2: If it's possible to break the resistance in the price range of 7.2335 - 7.2550, you may consider setting a Take Profit (TP) around 7.2952 and a Stop Loss (SL) around 7.1316 or based on an acceptable risk level.

 

Sell/Short 1: If there is a touch of resistance in the price range of 7.2335 - 7.2550 but it's not possible to break the resistance at 7.2335, you may consider setting a Take Profit (TP) around 7.1316 and a Stop Loss (SL) around 7.2952 or based on an acceptable risk level.


Sell/Short 2: If it's possible to break the support in the price range of 7.1316 - 7.1718, you may consider setting a Take Profit (TP) around 7.1101 and a Stop Loss (SL) around 7.2550 or based on an acceptable risk level.

 

Technical Indicators August 8, 2023 02:43 PM GMT+7
 
Name Value Action
RSI(14) 61.923 Buy
STOCH(9,6) 83.852 Overbought
STOCHRSI(14) 100.000 Overbought
MACD(12,26) 0.013 Buy
ADX(14) 39.435 Buy
Williams %R -1.463 Overbought
CCI(14) 205.2527 Overbought
ATR(14) 0.0410 Less Volatility
Highs/Lows(14) 0.0281 Buy
Ultimate Oscillator 92.104 Overbought
ROC 0.654 Buy
Bull/Bear Power(13) 0.0455 Buy

Buy:6

Sell:0

Neutral:0

Summary:Strong Buy

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