USD/JPY Analysis August 15, 2023

USD/JPY Analysis August 15, 2023
Create at 1 year ago (Aug 15, 2023 18:19)

The economy of Japan has been growing well.

The Japanese yen has been consistently weakening, with the latest depreciation taking it beyond 145 yen. Analysts predict that Japan might intervene again in the currency market if the yen weakens beyond 145 yen. Referring back to a similar situation in September of the previous year, Japan intervened when the yen was around 145 yen, leading to a strengthening of the yen to about 140 yen. However, this time, Japan might only intervene to a limited extent due to various ongoing issues that require careful budgeting.


Jaru Chanana, a marketing strategist at Saxo Markets, stated, "The fact that the Bank of Japan has not mentioned currency intervention indicates that the central bank's tolerance level may have increased after the recent monetary policy adjustments. It's also important to monitor the inflation trends in the United States."


In the United States, the Producer Price Index (PPI) slightly increased by 0.3% month-on-month (MoM), slightly exceeding the expected 0.2%. On a yearly basis (YoY), it rose to 0.8%, surpassing the anticipated 0.7%. The PPI for energy remained at 0.0% this month, attributed to the stabilized inflation rate and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates further. These factors are contributing to a more positive outlook for various businesses in the current market conditions.


It has been reported that Japan's GDP expanded by as much as 6% year-on-year (YoY) and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in the recent second quarter. These figures are notably higher than the anticipated growth of just 0.8%, marking a strong acceleration from the 0.9% growth in the first quarter. This represents consecutive growth over two quarters and is considered the fastest expansion since the fourth quarter of 2020. This growth was driven by an increase in exports, which saw a significant adjustment of up to 3.2%, and the depreciation of the yen, which played a crucial role in boosting export profitability.


Industrial production in Japan also rose by 2.4% month-on-month (MoM), following a decrease of 2.2% in the previous month. The majority of this growth came from the automotive and electronic equipment industries. The increased production signifies a rise in demand, particularly for electronic components that are essential across various sectors and are vital components for numerous modern devices.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 145.90, 146.15, 146.43

Support: 145.37, 145.09, 144.84

 

USD/JPY Analysis todaySource: Investing.com

 

Pivot Points June August 15, 2023 06:09 PM GMT+7
 
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 144.84 145.09 145.37 145.62 145.90 146.15 146.43
Fibonacci 145.09 145.29 145.42 145.62 145.82 145.95 146.15
Camarilla 145.50 145.55 145.60 145.62 145.69 145.74 145.79
Woodie's 144.84 145.09 145.37 145.62 145.90 146.15 146.43
DeMark's - - 145.49 145.68 146.02 - -

Buy/Long 1: If the price touches the support range around 145.09 - 145.37 but cannot break through the upper level at 145.37, consider setting a TP around 146.15 and a SL around 144.84, or based on your acceptable risk level.

 

Buy/Long 2: If you manage to break through the resistance range around 145.90 - 146.15, you could set a TP around 146.43 and a SL around 145.09, or based on your acceptable risk level.

 

Sell/Short 1: If the price touches the resistance range around 145.90 - 146.15 but cannot break through the lower level at 145.90, consider setting a TP around 145.09 and a SL around 146.43, or based on your acceptable risk level.


Sell/Short 2: If you can break through the support range around 145.09 - 145.37, you might consider setting a TP around 144.84 and a SL around 146.15, or based on your acceptable risk level.

 

Technical Indicators August 15, 2023 06:09 PM GMT+7
 
Name Value Action
RSI(14) 73.918 Buy
STOCH(9,6) 71.725 Buy
STOCHRSI(14) 66.525 Buy
MACD(12,26) 0.570 Buy
ADX(14) 46.428 Buy
Williams %R -21.875 Buy
CCI(14) 124.8192 Buy
ATR(14) 0.3307 Less Volatility
Highs/Lows(14) 0.2932 Buy
Ultimate Oscillator 59.471 Buy
ROC 0.483 Buy
Bull/Bear Power(13) 0.9870 Buy

Buy:11

Sell:0

Neutral:0

Summary:Strong Buy

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