USD/AUD Analysis September 14, 2023

USD/AUD Analysis September 14, 2023
Create at 1 year ago (Sep 14, 2023 17:18)

Australia's exports still require close monitoring.

The Australian dollar has strengthened once again. Based on the latest unemployment rate data released yesterday, it is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to adopt stricter policies. Despite the stronger-than-expected economic expansion in the second quarter, other economic indicators, including exports, remain a cause for concern. Analysts also anticipate that interest rates will stay unchanged.


Apart from domestic factors, there are also influences from the United States, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) announced yesterday and today's release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) with an expected increase of 0.4% from the previous month's 0.3%. If the PPI surges significantly, it could impact inflation rates and potentially lead to the Federal Reserve (FED) raising interest rates again, affecting market confidence.


Australia's unemployment rate stands at 3.7%, unchanged from the previous month. The number of unemployed individuals decreased by 2.6 thousand to 540.5 thousand, mainly due to an increase in full-time employment by 6 thousand, totaling 358.3 thousand. Furthermore, wage growth is expected to increase in the near future. Meanwhile, there has been an increase in hiring, with 64.9 thousand new jobs, totaling 14.11 million people. However, employment levels remain lower than before the onset of Covid-19.


There has been a forecast that the consumer price inflation rate in Australia will decrease to 4.6% from the previous 4.9% in the preceding month. The lowered inflation rate forecast further reinforces the expectation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will temporarily halt interest rate hikes. Additionally, Philip Lowe, the outgoing governor of the central bank, recently mentioned that medium-term inflation forecasts are expected to align with the RBA's target inflation rate of 2-3%. He also expressed the view that inflation has likely peaked.


The reduced inflation rate forecast has led to an increase in Australia's business confidence index, rising to 2 in August from the previous month's 1. This positive trend is supported by the profitability of various companies and an increase in hiring. However, labor costs have risen by 3.2% over the past three months, and procurement costs have increased by 2.9%.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 1.5565, 1.5585, 1.5614

Support: 1.5517, 1.5489, 1.5469

 

USD/AUD Analysis todaySource: Investing.com

 

Pivot Points June September 14, 2023 05:08 PM GMT+7
 
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 1.5469 1.5489 1.5517 1.5537 1.5565 1.5585 1.5614
Fibonacci 1.5489 1.5507 1.5519 1.5537 1.5555 1.5567 1.5585
Camarilla 1.5532 1.5536 1.5540 1.5537 1.5549 1.5554 1.5558
Woodie's 1.5473 1.5491 1.5521 1.5539 1.5569 1.5587 1.5618
DeMark's - - 1.5527 1.5542 1.5575 - -

Buy/Long 1: If the price touch of the support level in the price range of 1.5489 - 1.5517 but it doesn't break through the support at 1.5517, you may consider setting a Take Profit (TP) level around 1.5585 and a Stop Loss (SL) around 1.5469, or according to your acceptable risk.

 

Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks through the resistance level in the price range of 1.5565 - 1.5585, you may consider setting a Take Profit (TP) level around 1.5614 and a Stop Loss (SL) around 1.5489, or according to your acceptable risk.

 

Sell/Short 1: If the price touch of the resistance level in the price range of 1.5565 - 1.5585 but it doesn't break through the resistance at 1.5565, you may consider setting a Take Profit (TP) level around 1.5489 and a Stop Loss (SL) around 1.5614, or according to your acceptable risk.


Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks through the support level in the price range of 1.5489 - 1.5517, you may consider setting a Take Profit (TP) level around 1.5469 and a Stop Loss (SL) around 1.5585, or according to your acceptable risk.

 

Technical Indicators September 14, 2023 05:08 PM GMT+7
 
Name Value Action
RSI(14) 45.879 Neutral
STOCH(9,6) 36.233 Sell
STOCHRSI(14) 35.074 Sell
MACD(12,26) -0.000 Sell
ADX(14) 24.906 Neutral
Williams %R -66.492 Sell
CCI(14) -50.8729 Sell
ATR(14) 0.0056 Less Volatility
Highs/Lows(14) 0.0000 Neutral
Ultimate Oscillator 43.515 Sell
ROC 0.045 Buy
Bull/Bear Power(13) -0.0041 Sell

Buy:1

Sell:7

Neutral:3

Summary:Strong Sell

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