Labor shortage remains a major problem in Russia.

The Russian ruble continues to weaken, depreciating by over 100 rubles per US dollar due to the strengthening of the dollar. This has led many companies to move their assets to lower-risk locations. Additionally, inflation in Russia is on the rise again, as evidenced by increases over the past 2-3 months. This has forced the Central Bank of Russia to raise interest rates significantly, impacting economic growth and increasing borrowing costs.

The ongoing economic challenges have also resulted in poor exports for Russia, making trade with Europe and the G7 nations more difficult. Furthermore, China's economy has not fully recovered, contributing to a 77% decrease in Russia's trade surplus compared to the previous year in July. The weakening ruble has also led to higher import costs, particularly for essential consumer goods and food, burdening the Russian population.

In terms of trade with the United States, it has also been unfavorable, with a trade surplus decreasing to $58.3 billion in August. Despite a 1.6% increase in exports, the stronger dollar has limited the gains from exports. Additionally, competition in the semiconductor sector with China and export bans on certain products have reduced trade with China, resulting in a 1.3 billion dollar decrease in the trade surplus. Simultaneously, imports have decreased by 0.7%, totaling $314.3 billion, with increased imports of crude oil and various metals.

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Russia's manufacturing sector rose to 54.5 in September, up from 52.7 the previous month. Much of this expansion is driven by domestic demand, as reduced trade has only slightly increased new orders from foreign countries. The current economic conditions have reduced the spending capacity of foreign companies, affecting global market demand.

The number of employed individuals in Russia increased to 74.20 million in August, up from 74 million in the previous month. Hiring has increased in both the manufacturing and service sectors, despite rising raw material and labor costs. The demand within the country has been a driving force for increased employment, including the deployment of personnel for military purposes, contributing to labor shortages.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 101.4588, 102.0019, 102.5288

Support: 100.3888, 99.8619, 99.3188

Source: Investing.com