USD/JPY Analysis November 6, 2023

Create at 11 months ago (Nov 06, 2023 15:26)

The Bank of Japan continues to keep the interest rate at -0.1%.

The Japanese yen remains stable at 150 yen per dollar, amid concerns about a potential economic downturn due to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate hikes. Investors believe that the Fed's interest rates are at their highest point, with declining non-agricultural job numbers and rising unemployment starting to feel the impact of the increased interest rates this year.

 

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its interest rate at -0.1% in its recent meeting. BoJ has adjusted its inflation expectations upwards for 2023 and 2024 to 2.8% from 1.3% and 2.2%, respectively, which still exceeds the target of 2%. This is due to the risks related to energy prices, which could increase if the conflict escalates further.

 

In addition to keeping interest rates stable, BoJ has also set a new framework for the maximum yield on government bonds at 1%, as policymakers anticipate a moderate economic recovery in Japan due to its resilient nature. BoJ also has the option to implement additional monetary easing measures if necessary.

 

Japan's manufacturing sector's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) saw a slight increase to 48.7 in October, but production and new orders decreased. Export volumes shrank significantly due to a decrease in orders from China, a key trading partner. This led to a reduction in hiring, while prices continued to rise due to manufacturers passing on higher costs to customers.

 

The PMI for the services sector in Japan increased to 51.6 in October, with new orders expanding slightly, supported by government stimulus. This also led to an increase in hiring. However, the prices for raw materials continued to rise, while the output prices did not increase significantly.

 

Retail sales in Japan increased by 5.8% YoY in September, indicating continued strong household spending and a recovery from the pandemic. Sales of petroleum, food, and beverages showed significant growth, and Japan's oil imports remained high.

 

The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds decreased to 0.91% from 0.95%, reflecting reduced concerns about the Fed's interest rates, which have also impacted global government bond yields. BoJ has maintained its JGB 10-year yield target at around 0% but expanded the yield range to 1% from 0.5%. BoJ has also announced a reduction in its purchases of Japanese government bonds.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 149.65, 149.77, 149.86

Support: 149.44, 149.35, 149.23

 

USD/JPY Analysis todaySource: Investing.com

 

Pivot Points November 6, 2023 03:19 PM GMT+7
 
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 149.23 149.35 149.44 149.56 149.65 149.77 149.86
Fibonacci 149.35 149.43 149.48 149.56 149.64 149.69 149.77
Camarilla 149.49 149.51 149.53 149.56 149.56 149.58 149.60
Woodie's 149.23 149.35 149.44 149.56 149.65 149.77 149.86
DeMark's - - 149.51 149.59 149.71 - -

Buy/Long 1: If the price touches support in the price range of 149.35 - 149.44 but cannot break the support at 149.44, you may set a TP at approximately 149.77 and SL at around 149.23 or according to your acceptable risk.

 

Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks the resistance in the price range of 149.65 - 149.77, you may set a TP at approximately 149.86 and SL at around 149.35 or according to your acceptable risk.

 

Sell/Short 1: If the price touches resistance in the price range of 149.65 - 149.77 but cannot break the resistance at 149.65, you may set a TP at approximately 149.35 and SL at around 149.86 or according to your acceptable risk.


Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks the support in the price range of 149.35 - 149.44, you may set a TP at approximately 149.23 and SL at around 149.77 or according to your acceptable risk.

 
Technical Indicators November 6, 2023 03:19 PM GMT+7
 
Name Value Action
RSI(14) 42.451 Sell
STOCH(9,6) 18.265 Oversold
STOCHRSI(14) 36.847 Sell
MACD(12,26) -0.170 Sell
ADX(14) 48.454 Sell
Williams %R -77.428 Sell
CCI(14) -63.7115 Sell
ATR(14) 0.4393 Less Volatility
Highs/Lows(14) -0.1500 Sell
Ultimate Oscillator 33.501 Sell
ROC -0.881 Sell
Bull/Bear Power(13) -0.3940 Sell

Buy:0

Sell:10

Neutral:0

Summary:Strong Sell

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