USD/INR Analysis November 13, 2023

Create at 11 months ago (Nov 13, 2023 20:54)

Manufacturing in India is growing at a slower state.

The Indian Rupee remains at levels of 83-83.4 Rupees per US Dollar, and the trend suggests that the Rupee could further depreciate. This is due to continuous outflows of foreign capital, driven by investor concerns about increasing inflation. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been selling foreign exchange reserves several times to support the Rupee from falling below the 83.3 Rupees per US Dollar level, selling more than 23 billion US Dollars in the past four months.

 

The inflation rate in India decreased to 4.87% in October, slightly higher than the expected 4.8%, primarily due to a 0.39% decline in crude oil prices. However, food inflation increased significantly, with prices of spices rising by 22.76%, oilseeds by 18.79%, cereals by 10.65%, eggs by 9.3%, and sugar by 5.5%.

 

Industrial production in India increased by 5.8% YoY in September. However, there are signs of a slowdown, with factory production growing by 4.5% compared to 9.3%, mining increasing by 11.5% compared to 12.3%, and electricity production rising by 9.9% compared to 15.3%, all in comparison to August.

 

The Services PMI in India decreased to 58.4 in October from 61.0 in September. Despite continuous economic growth, pressures on utilities and declining prices of goods and services have slightly dampened the expansion trend in the services sector. Employment and raw material prices continue to rise, leading to a rapid increase in production cost inflation and a decline in business confidence.

 

The Manufacturing PMI also decreased to 55.5 in October, with factory activity growing at the slowest rate since February. Rising raw material and production costs continue to impact the manufacturing sector. Amid decreasing concerns about utilities, the rate of input cost inflation has accelerated, contributing to a reduction in business confidence.

 

The yield on 10-year government bonds in India has rapidly declined, reaching close to 7.3% recently. This is influenced by decreasing concerns about inflation in India and is also impacted by the declining yield on US government bonds. Investors anticipate that the current high-interest rate trend may persist for some time, despite expectations that reducing inflation may be more challenging than anticipated.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 83.331, 83.358, 83.385

Support: 83.277, 83.250, 83.224

 

USD/INR Analysis todaySource: Investing.com

 

Pivot Points November 13, 2023 08:48 PM GMT+7
 
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 83.224 83.250 83.277 83.304 83.331 83.358 83.385
Fibonacci 83.250 83.271 83.283 83.304 83.325 83.337 83.358
Camarilla 83.291 83.296 83.301 83.304 83.311 83.316 83.321
Woodie's 83.226 83.251 83.279 83.305 83.333 83.359 83.387
DeMark's - - 83.291 83.311 83.345 - -

Buy/Long 1: If the price touches support in the price range of 83.250 - 83.277 but cannot break the support at 83.277, you may set a TP at approximately 83.358 and SL at around 83.224 or according to your acceptable risk.

 

Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks the resistance in the price range of 83.331 - 83.358, you may set a TP at approximately 83.385 and SL at around 83.250 or according to your acceptable risk.

 

Sell/Short 1: If the price touches resistance in the price range of 83.331 - 83.358 but cannot break the resistance at 83.331, you may set a TP at approximately 83.250 and SL at around 83.385 or according to your acceptable risk.


Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks the support in the price range of 83.250 - 83.277, you may set a TP at approximately 83.224 and SL at around 83.358 or according to your acceptable risk.

 
Technical Indicators November 13, 2023 08:48 PM GMT+7
 
Name Value Action
RSI(14) 48.658 Neutral
STOCH(9,6) 26.188 Sell
STOCHRSI(14) 0.000 Oversold
MACD(12,26) 0.012 Buy
ADX(14) 32.095 Buy
Williams %R -82.698 Oversold
CCI(14) -29.2313 Neutral
ATR(14) 0.0885 High Volatility
Highs/Lows(14) 0.0000 Neutral
Ultimate Oscillator 40.183 Sell
ROC 0.059 Buy
Bull/Bear Power(13) 0.0155 Buy

Buy:4

Sell:2

Neutral:3

Summary:BUY

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