USD/EUR Analysis November 22, 2023

Create at 11 months ago (Nov 22, 2023 19:23)

The economic growth in the Eurozone may experience a slight slowdown.

The euro has slightly weakened following the latest FOMC meeting report, indicating increased caution from Fed policymakers regarding future interest rate adjustments while maintaining the inflation target at 2%. Additionally, investors are awaiting the European Central Bank's (ECB) meeting report scheduled for Thursday, led by Christine Lagarde, the ECB President, and policymaker Villeroy de Galhau, who indicated a commitment to maintain these high interest rates for several more quarters.

 

The eurozone's inflation rate has decreased to 2.9% year-on-year (YoY) in October but still exceeds the ECB's 2% target. This decline is supported by lower energy prices and a slowdown in food inflation, with energy costs dropping by 11.2%, while food and beverage inflation reduced to 7.4%. This continuous decrease in inflation rates indicates a more positive trend.

 

The economic growth (GDP) forecast for the Eurozone is expected to reach 0.6% in 2023, lower than the previous projection of 0.8%, attributed to the persistently high inflation rates despite some reduction, increased interest rates since the beginning of the year, and weakened external demand, directly impacting the European economy. Germany, as the largest economy in the group, is expected to contract by 0.3% this year.

 

Concerns persist regarding industrial production, which declined by 1.1% month-on-month (MoM) in September, with various sectors experiencing decreased output. Both domestic and international demand contraction remains worrisome, with industrial activity shrinking by 6.9% in September YoY, marking the largest decline since June.

 

The Eurozone's trade surplus amounted to 10 billion euros in September, significantly higher than the same period last year at 29.8 billion euros. This surge was due to a substantial decrease in imports by 23.9%, totaling 225.8 billion euros, attributed to reduced energy purchases by 33.4% and raw material imports by 21.7%. Exports experienced a slight decline of 9.3%, totaling 260 billion euros.

 

The trade surplus and service surplus have resulted in an overall current account surplus of 40.78 billion euros, the highest in two years. The service surplus increased to 16.11 billion euros from 14.33 billion euros, driven by a robust tourism sector and reduced expenses stemming from lower oil prices.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 0.9172, 0.9185, 0.9192

Support: 0.9152, 0.9145, 0.9132

 

USD/EUR Analysis todaySource: Investing.com

 

Pivot Points November 22, 2023 09:15 PM GMT+7
 
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 0.9132 0.9145 0.9152 0.9165 0.9172 0.9185 0.9192
Fibonacci 0.9145 0.9153 0.9157 0.9165 0.9173 0.9177 0.9185
Camarilla 0.9155 0.9157 0.9159 0.9165 0.9162 0.9164 0.9166
Woodie's 0.9130 0.9144 0.9150 0.9164 0.9170 0.9184 0.9190
DeMark's - - 0.9149 0.9163 0.9169 - -

Buy/Long 1: If the price touches support in the price range of 0.9145 - 0.9152but cannot break the support at 0.9152, you may set a TP at approximately 0.9185 and SL at around 0.9132 or according to your acceptable risk.

 

Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks the resistance in the price range of 0.9172 - 0.9185, you may set a TP at approximately 0.9192 and SL at around 0.9145 or according to your acceptable risk.

 

Sell/Short 1: If the price touches resistance in the price range of 0.9172 - 0.9185 but cannot break the resistance at 0.9172, you may set a TP at approximately 0.9145 and SL at around 0.9192 or according to your acceptable risk.


Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks the support in the price range of 0.9145 - 0.9152, you may set a TP at approximately 0.9132 and SL at around 0.9185 or according to your acceptable risk.

 
Technical Indicators November 22, 2023 09:15 PM GMT+7
 
Name Value Action
RSI(14) 42.724 Sell
STOCH(9,6) 58.183 Buy
STOCHRSI(14) 100.000 Overbought
MACD(12,26) -0.003 Sell
ADX(14) 34.034 Neutral
Williams %R -26.715 Buy
CCI(14) 89.2316 Buy
ATR(14) 0.0021 Less Volatility
Highs/Lows(14) 0.0006 Buy
Ultimate Oscillator 56.677 Buy
ROC -0.142 Sell
Bull/Bear Power(13) 0.0026 Buy

Buy:6

Sell:3

Neutral:1

Summary:Strong Buy

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