The euro has been consistently strong and hit new highs since August due to investor concerns about the possibility of another interest rate hike. Many policymakers at the ECB share this concern. They also warn of the risk of inflation if interest rates are raised too quickly in the future.
Meanwhile, ECB policymakers continue to emphasize the importance of raising interest rates further. However, the latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data indicates a contraction in Eurozone business activity, with continuous job cuts since the beginning of 2023. Additionally, there's a sustained increase in raw material costs.
The rapid decline in inflation has led the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain its interest rate at 4.5%, and the deposit rate at a historically high 4%. The ECB closely monitors inflation rates with the goal of bringing inflation back to a sustainable 2%.
Investors remain concerned about the impending economic downturn due to successive interest rate hikes in recent years. Furthermore, data from Germany suggests that the largest economy in the Eurozone is adjusting less favorably than anticipated in November.
The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI increased to 43.8 in November from 43.1 in October, indicating a slight improvement but still a contraction compared to the previous month. New orders decreased slightly, resulting in the largest job cuts since August 2020. Inventory levels also decreased due to reduced demand. Manufacturing pricing shows a significant decrease in raw material costs.
The services PMI increased to 48.2 in November from 47.8 in October, slightly higher than the market's expectation of 48.1. However, the PMI figure still indicates the fourth contraction in service sector activity. New orders in services decreased slightly, but the sector continued to hire employees. On the pricing front, service sector raw material costs increased rapidly, leading to increased selling prices.
Resistance: 0.9140, 0.9148, 0.9155
Support: 0.9125, 0.9118, 0.9110
| Name | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot Points | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| Classic | 0.9110 | 0.9118 | 0.9125 | 0.9133 | 0.9140 | 0.9148 | 0.9155 |
| Fibonacci | 0.9118 | 0.9124 | 0.9127 | 0.9133 | 0.9139 | 0.9142 | 0.9148 |
| Camarilla | 0.9128 | 0.9130 | 0.9131 | 0.9133 | 0.9134 | 0.9135 | 0.9136 |
| Woodie's | 0.9110 | 0.9118 | 0.9125 | 0.9133 | 0.9140 | 0.9148 | 0.9155 |
| DeMark's | - | - | 0.9122 | 0.9131 | 0.9137 | - | - |
Buy/Long 1: If the price touches support in the price range of 0.9118 - 0.9125 but cannot break the support at 0.9125, you may set a TP at approximately 0.9148 and SL at around 0.9110 or according to your acceptable risk.
Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks the resistance in the price range of 0.9140 - 0.9148, you may set a TP at approximately 0.9155 and SL at around 0.9118 or according to your acceptable risk.
Sell/Short 1: If the price touches resistance in the price range of 0.9140 - 0.9148 but cannot break the resistance at 0.9140, you may set a TP at approximately 0.9118 and SL at around 0.9155 or according to your acceptable risk.
Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks the support in the price range of 0.9118 - 0.9125, you may set a TP at approximately 0.9110 and SL at around 0.9148 or according to your acceptable risk.
| Name | Value | Action |
| RSI(14) | 36.117 | Sell |
| STOCH(9,6) | 18.256 | Oversold |
| STOCHRSI(14) | 13.694 | Oversold |
| MACD(12,26) | -0.002 | Sell |
| ADX(14) | 22.813 | Sell |
| Williams %R | -83.993 | Oversold |
| CCI(14) | -103.0022 | Sell |
| ATR(14) | 0.0016 | Less Volatility |
| Highs/Lows(14) | -0.0012 | Sell |
| Ultimate Oscillator | 36.667 | Sell |
| ROC | -0.554 | Sell |
| Bull/Bear Power(13) | -0.0032 | Sell |
|
Buy:0 Sell:8 Neutral:0 Summary:Strong Sell |
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