The Indian economy shows strong growth potential. 

The Indian rupee strengthened slightly in early February, with the Ministry of Finance announcing an 11% increase in infrastructure spending for the 2024-2025 fiscal year. It is expected that the revenue of the Ministry of Finance will also increase. There are forecasts that the Indian economy will grow by over 7% in the coming years, driven by the strength of the financial sector and infrastructure improvements.

The strengthening of the Indian rupee has been supported by the Reserve Bank of India, which has intervened in the foreign exchange market multiple times to prevent rapid depreciation. Reports indicate that the Reserve Bank of India has been intervening since the second quarter of 2023.

Wholesale prices in India increased by 0.73% year-on-year, lower than the market's expectation of a 0.9% increase. This is attributed to a rapid rise in food and essential commodity prices, while fuel prices have decreased slightly, benefiting the manufacturing sector. Most of the decline in production costs is in the metal and chemical industries.

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slightly decreased to 56.5 in January, indicating resilient growth since September last year. This growth is driven by expanding production and new orders. Export orders have also increased, while hiring remains stable despite rising raw material costs. The inflation rate of raw material prices has reached a three-month high and continues to rise.

The Services PMI increased to 61.8 in January, higher than the expected 60 and December's 59, indicating rapid growth in the service sector. Exports have increased significantly, particularly to Afghanistan, Europe, the Arab Emirates, and the United States. However, the inflation rate of raw material costs continues to rise due to increased food costs, transportation, and employee salary adjustments.

The yield on Indian government bonds with a 10-year maturity is approximately 7.08%, influenced by the Ministry of Finance's forecast that the fiscal deficit for 2024-2025 will decrease to 5.1% from 5.8%. Additionally, India plans to sell government bonds worth over 14.13 trillion rupees and has received support from JPMorgan to include Indian government bonds in a new market index fund.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 83.07, 83.091, 83.111

Source: Investing.com

Buy/Long 1: If the price touches support in the price range of 83.009 - 83.03 but cannot break the support at 83.03, you may set a TP at approximately 83.091 and SL at around 82.989 or according to your acceptable risk.

Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks the resistance in the price range of 83.07 - 83.091, you may set a TP at approximately 83.111 and SL at around 83.009 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 1: If the price touches resistance in the price range of 83.07 - 83.091 but cannot break the resistance at 83.07, you may set a TP at approximately 83.009 and SL at around 83.111 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks the support in the price range of 83.009 - 83.03, you may set a TP at approximately 82.989 and SL at around 83.091 or according to your acceptable risk.

Pivot point February 6, 2024 04:37 PM. GMT+7