Australia's GDP expanded less than expected.

The Australian dollar has slightly strengthened amid investor expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to lower interest rates faster than other central banks. Additionally, the GDP expanding less than expected is seen as supporting the idea that the Reserve Bank of Australia will start lowering interest rates this year. Currently, the market expects almost a 90% chance that the RBA will reduce interest rates in August by more than 45 bps.

Australia's economy expanded by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2023, lower than the market's forecast of 0.3%, reflecting efforts to limit spending and focus only on essential goods as household spending decreased. Meanwhile, government spending slowed significantly, with domestic investment declining. Private sector investment also decreased due to increased costs in real estate and higher commodity prices.

The value of home loans in Australia decreased by 4.6% month-on-month to AUD 15.91 billion in January, with existing home purchases continuing to decline by 5.2%, while new home purchases decreased by only 1.0%, indicating reduced purchases in the real estate sector and decreased borrowing.

Job vacancies in Australia decreased by 2.8% month-on-month in February, up from 3.4% in the previous month, as labor market activity slowed due to higher borrowing costs from rising interest rates, leading to economic slowdown. Madeline Dunk, an economist at ANZ, commented that changes in the labor market indicate a further increase in the unemployment rate as job growth slows.

Business profits in Australia increased by 7.4% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2023, higher than the market's forecast of 1.8%, although profits in the production sector remained stable after a 2.8% increase in the third quarter. Meanwhile, profits decreased in wholesale, retail, and accommodation industries.

The manufacturing sector's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased to 47.8, indicating continued industry slowdown at the beginning of 2024, with output, new orders, and hiring still decreasing. Additionally, rising raw material prices due to increased transportation costs have led to higher consumer prices, potentially leading to increased inflation. Nevertheless, businesses are increasingly optimistic as recovery efforts continue.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 1.5162, 1.5176, 1.5204

Source: Investing.com

Buy/Long 1: If the price touches support in the price range of 1.5092 - 1.512 but cannot break the support at 1.512, you may set a TP at approximately 1.5176 and SL at around 1.5077 or according to your acceptable risk.

Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks the resistance in the price range of 1.5162 - 1.5176, you may set a TP at approximately 1.5204 and SL at around 1.5092 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 1: If the price touches resistance in the price range of 1.5162 - 1.5176 but cannot break the resistance at 1.5162, you may set a TP at approximately 1.5092 and SL at around 1.5204 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks the support in the price range of 1.5092 - 1.512, you may set a TP at approximately 1.5077 and SL at around 1.5176 or according to your acceptable risk.

Pivot point March 11, 2024 09:35 PM. GMT+7