The Indian economy can grow well.

The Indian rupee has depreciated by more than 82.9 rupees per US dollar following unexpectedly strong inflation rates in the United States, causing the dollar to strengthen once again. However, the rupee continues to attract significant capital inflows due to increased interest from foreign markets in government bond securities. Additionally, strong GDP growth supports a tendency for the rupee to strengthen.

The Indian economy expanded by 8.4% annually in the fourth quarter of 2023, up from 8.1% in the third quarter and surpassing expectations of 6.6%. The services sector continued to expand steadily at 6.7%, while the financial and real estate sectors also performed well. Conversely, the agricultural sector contracted by 0.8% due to unfavorable weather conditions and significant impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a substantial decrease in agricultural output.

India's fiscal deficit decreased to 11.03 trillion rupees from April 2022 to January 2023, down from 11.91 trillion rupees in the same period the previous year. Government spending increased by 5.9% to 33.55 trillion rupees, while revenue increased by 13.9% to 22.52 trillion rupees. India has also projected a current fiscal deficit of 5.9% of GDP for the current fiscal year, which is expected to decrease to just 5.1% of GDP next year.

The inflation rate decreased slightly to 5.09% in February 2024 compared to 5.1% in January. However, food inflation remained consistently high at 8.66%, higher than 8.3% in January, primarily driven by significant increases in vegetable prices by over 30.3%, spice prices by 13.5%, and fruit prices by 4.8%, while fuel and electricity prices decreased slightly by 0.8% after a 0.6% decrease.

The yield on Indian government 10-year bonds increased to 7.04%, following global bond yields rising due to higher-than-expected inflation rates in the United States. Although bond yields have increased in many countries, India's government bond yields remain near their lowest levels in nine months, reflecting increased interest in the country's debt securities market due to its strong economic trends and stable growth.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 82.93, 82.942, 82.964

Source: Investing.com

Buy/Long 1: If the price touches support in the price range of 82.874 - 82.896 but cannot break the support at 82.896, you may set a TP at approximately 82.942 and SL at around 82.862 or according to your acceptable risk.

Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks the resistance in the price range of 82.93 - 82.942, you may set a TP at approximately 82.964 and SL at around 82.874 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 1: If the price touches resistance in the price range of 82.93 - 82.942 but cannot break the resistance at 82.93, you may set a TP at approximately 82.874 and SL at around 82.964 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks the support in the price range of 82.874 - 82.896, you may set a TP at approximately 82.862 and SL at around 82.942 or according to your acceptable risk.

Pivot point March 18, 2024 09:36 PM. GMT+7