The trade balance of the eurozone has accelerated rapidly.

The euro has weakened to below 0.94 against the US dollar in April, driven by various factors such as escalating geopolitical tensions, stronger-than-expected US economy, and continuous depreciation of the eurozone currency. Investors anticipate that the ECB may cut interest rates for the first time in June. On the US side, the Federal Reserve may prolong its interest rate stance as the US inflation rate remains above the central bank's target.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has kept its interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time at 4.5% during its latest meeting, with the deposit rate remaining at 4%. The ECB hinted at potential interest rate cuts soon if it becomes confident that inflation is moving towards its target of 2%. Meanwhile, the ECB needs to closely monitor underlying inflation rates and wage growth as crucial factors for future monetary policy decisions.

The eurozone's trade surplus significantly increased by €23.6 billion in February, up from €3.6 billion in the same month last year, with imports decreasing by 8.4% to €211.4 billion, reflecting reduced domestic demand. Major declines in imports were seen in fuels and lubricants, followed by machinery and industrial goods, mainly from China, the United Kingdom, Russia, and Norway. Exports increased by 0.3% annually to €235 billion, driven by food and beverage exports, as well as raw materials used in various industries.

Retail sales in the eurozone fell by 0.5% month-on-month in February, with sales of food and beverages down by 0.4% after a 0.3% increase, while non-food product sales decreased by 0.2% after a 0.4% increase. Additionally, sales of automotive fuel experienced a rapid decline of 1.4%, indicating a slowdown in consumer travel and private goods transportation.

Producer prices in the eurozone's industrial sector declined by 1.0% from the previous month in February, suggesting that future inflation rates may slow down further. Continuous decreases in energy costs have allowed companies to better control production costs, which could benefit households due to minimal increases in product prices.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 0.9424, 0.9431, 0.9439

Source: Investing.com

Buy/Long 1: If the price touches support in the price range of 0.9399 - 0.9408 but cannot break the support at 0.9408, you may set a TP at approximately 0.9431 and SL at around 0.9392 or according to your acceptable risk.

Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks the resistance in the price range of 0.9424 - 0.9431, you may set a TP at approximately 0.9439 and SL at around 0.9399 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 1: If the price touches resistance in the price range of 0.9424 - 0.9431 but cannot break the resistance at 0.9424, you may set a TP at approximately 0.9399 and SL at around 0.9439 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks the support in the price range of 0.9399 - 0.9408, you may set a TP at approximately 0.9392 and SL at around 0.9431 or according to your acceptable risk.

Pivot point April 17, 2024 00:02 PM. GMT+7