The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain interest rates at the  next meeting.

The Japanese yen has been continuously weakening, reaching its lowest level in 34 years. This has raised concerns about the rapid depreciation of the yen, with Finance Minister Taro Aso expressing worries that there might be another intervention to counteract the yen's depreciation. Currently, investors are closely watching the policy decisions of the Bank of Japan this week, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda mentioned in the G20 meeting last week that the central bank might raise interest rates again if the yen's depreciation leads to sustained inflation due to increased import costs. Investors are also awaiting GDP announcements on a quarterly basis and inflation forecasts from the upcoming policy meeting.

In March, Japan's inflation rate dropped by 2.7% year-on-year, in line with market expectations, mainly due to delayed transportation and household goods prices. Fuel and electricity prices have also continued to decrease due to government subsidies. However, there has been a slight increase in prices for dairy and egg products.

Credit lending in Japan increased by 3.2% year-on-year in March, marking another increase after a 3% rise in February. The outstanding loan balance of major banks remains at ¥619.6 trillion, indicating a continuous increase in credit lending driven by major banks.

Japan's trade surplus slightly increased to ¥366.47 trillion in March, compared to a deficit of ¥750.85 trillion in the same period last year, attributed to expanding exports amid reduced imports, particularly from increased demand from the United States.

Imports to Japan contracted rapidly by 4.9% year-on-year to ¥9.1 trillion in March, reversing after a 0.5% increase in February, mainly due to a significant decrease in LNG imports and coal by over 20%. Industrial goods imports also decreased by 14.3%, particularly in the mineral and metal category. However, machinery imports increased by 3.2%, mainly driven by computer imports, with the largest decrease in imports coming from China, followed by Singapore.

Exports increased by 7.3% year-on-year to ¥9.47 trillion in March, marking the fourth consecutive month of export growth. Sales of automotive equipment and vehicles continued to increase steadily. Additionally, machinery exports increased by 3.9%, driven by exports of semiconductor manufacturing machinery and various electrical equipment. Export growth was observed particularly in the United States and China.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 154.87, 154.94, 155.02

Source: Investing.com

Buy/Long 1: If the price touches support in the price range of 154.64 - 154.71 but cannot break the support at 154.71, you may set a TP at approximately 154.94 and SL at around 154.56 or according to your acceptable risk.

Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks the resistance in the price range of 154.87 - 154.94, you may set a TP at approximately 155.02 and SL at around 154.64 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 1: If the price touches resistance in the price range of 154.87 - 154.94 but cannot break the resistance at 154.87, you may set a TP at approximately 154.64 and SL at around 155.02 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks the support in the price range of 154.64 - 154.71, you may set a TP at approximately 154.56 and SL at around 154.94 or according to your acceptable risk.

Pivot point April 23, 2024 07:53 PM. GMT+7