The ECB may reduce interest rates for the first time in June.

The euro strengthened in early May as investors anticipated Fed monetary policy trends, expecting interest rate cuts within the year due to weaker-than-expected US labor data. Simultaneously, investors anticipate that the ECB will certainly cut interest rates in June, with ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane observing that inflation is returning to the 2% target, prompting most ECB policymakers to begin supporting rate cuts next month, indicating a much more positive economic outlook from ECB policymakers.

Consumer confidence in the Eurozone remains steady at -14.7 in April, lower than the expected -14.0, but the highest increase since February 2022, reflecting the positive momentum driven by hopes of an ECB interest rate cut.

Retail sales in the Eurozone increased by 0.8% from the previous month in March, rebounding rapidly after a 0.3% decline, indicating strong consumer spending, consistent with other economic data reflecting strong momentum in the Eurozone economy, with rapid increases in sales of motor fuels and a slight decrease in food and beverage sales.

The Eurozone industrial producer price index fell by 0.4% from the previous month, marking the fifth consecutive decline, leading to another opportunity for the inflation rate to decrease further due to pressure from declining prices of various goods, especially continuous energy cost reductions, which would benefit the economy as a whole. Excluding energy prices, the producer price index increased by 0.2%, but the overall trend continued to decline.

The Eurozone unemployment rate has once again decreased, standing at 6.5% in March, in line with market expectations, with the number of unemployed decreasing by 94,000 from the previous month to 11.087 million people. At the same time, the youth unemployment rate under 25 decreased to 14.1% in March, indicating an increasing demand for labor, which would benefit the economy overall.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 0.9312, 0.9321, 0.9328

Source: Investing.com

Buy/Long 1: If the price touches support in the price range of 0.9291 - 0.9297 but cannot break the support at 0.9297, you may set a TP at approximately 0.9321 and SL at around 0.9282 or according to your acceptable risk.

Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks the resistance in the price range of 0.9312 - 0.9321, you may set a TP at approximately 0.9328 and SL at around 0.9291 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 1: If the price touches resistance in the price range of 0.9312 - 0.9321 but cannot break the resistance at 0.9312, you may set a TP at approximately 0.9291 and SL at around 0.9328 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks the support in the price range of 0.9291 - 0.9297, you may set a TP at approximately 0.9282 and SL at around 0.9321 or according to your acceptable risk.

Pivot point May 8, 2024 08:17 PM. GMT+7