Australia's imports have surged rapidly.

The Australian dollar has slightly Strengthened as investors await details on the government's annual budget announcement due today. This budget may include support for household living costs and could temporarily help reduce inflation. Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated that the current inflation rate of 3.6% is expected to return to the Reserve Bank of Australia's target of 2-3% by the end of the year. If this scenario materializes, the central bank is likely to cut interest rates sooner than the market anticipates.

Australia's trade surplus fell to AUD 5.02 billion in March, below market expectations of AUD 7.30 billion. This is the smallest trade surplus since 2020, due to minimal growth in exports while imports surged rapidly. Australian goods exports increased by only 0.1% month-on-month to AUD 44.91 billion, mainly driven by fuel exports. Lower energy prices led to reduced revenue, and there was a significant decline of over 7.8% in coal sales. However, exports increased to China, South Korea, Singapore, and the United States.

Imports to Australia rose by 4.2% month-on-month, reaching a record high of AUD 39.88 billion in March. Intermediate goods and other products saw a 4.1% increase, amounting to AUD 17.02 billion, boosted by various processed industrial supplies, especially fuels and lubricants. Consumer goods imports also rose by 4.1% to AUD 12.27 billion, driven by food and beverage imports.

Australia's unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in March, with the number of unemployed increasing by 20.6 thousand to 569.9 thousand. Most of these were full-time job seekers, which increased by 19.3 thousand to 371.3 thousand, while part-time job seekers rose by 1.3 thousand to 198.6 thousand. Meanwhile, employment fell sharply, reducing the employment-to-application ratio after it had increased in the previous month.

The composite output index fell to 53 in April from 53.3 in the previous month, indicating robust growth in private sector output. Most of this growth remains in the services sector, as manufacturing output continues to decline. New orders and production have been consistently falling, and raw material costs continue to rise rapidly due to severe inflation in both manufacturing and services. However, private sector confidence remains positive, suggesting potential economic improvement by the end of the year.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 1.5039, 1.5064, 1.51

Source: Investing.com

Buy/Long 1: If the price touches support in the price range of 1.494 - 1.4977 but cannot break the support at 1.4977, you may set a TP at approximately 1.5064 and SL at around 1.4916 or according to your acceptable risk.

Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks the resistance in the price range of 1.5039 - 1.5064, you may set a TP at approximately 1.51 and SL at around 1.494 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 1: If the price touches resistance in the price range of 1.5039 - 1.5064 but cannot break the resistance at 1.5039, you may set a TP at approximately 1.494 and SL at around 1.51 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks the support in the price range of 1.494 - 1.4977, you may set a TP at approximately 1.4916 and SL at around 1.5064 or according to your acceptable risk.

Pivot point May 16, 2024 10:01 PM. GMT+7