The Russian economy continues to be pressured by sanctions.

The Russian ruble remains stable at 88 rubles per US dollar, supported by the sale of foreign currency obtained from exports. This stability allows the ruble to maintain its value well compared to other currencies. However, Russia continues to feel the effects of major financial system sanctions from the US, making imports and exports more difficult due to increased shipping costs and reduced foreign demand, which in turn decreases potential profits.

Inflation in Russia surged to 8.6% year-on-year in June, up from 8.3% the previous month. The inflation trend continues to rise compared to earlier in the year, as the domestic economy remains largely affected by Western sanctions, significantly reducing Russia's economic competitiveness. These inflation figures align with economic signals forecasted by the Russian Central Bank. The central bank commented that domestic production capacity is under severe pressure, contributing to the rapid increase in inflation.

Retail sales in Russia rose 7.5% year-on-year in May, following an increase of over 8.2% the previous month, marking the 14th consecutive month of retail growth. However, domestic trading activities have slightly slowed down after several months of growth. The government continues to support the domestic economy, focusing on the manufacturing sector, due to significant labor shortages and external pressures.

Russia's unemployment rate remained at a record low of 2.6% in May, unchanged from April and below the market forecast of 2.7%. Despite government support, the lack of specialized personnel remains a crucial factor hindering higher employment growth. The number of unemployed increased by 44,000 from the previous month to 2 million, raising the month-on-month unemployment rate to 3.2%.

Russia's services PMI index dropped to 47.6 in June, down from 49.8 the previous month, indicating another contraction in the services sector and the lowest decline since 2023. The slowdown in new business activities led to decreased transactions from new customer bases, further pressured by a reduction in old customers. Meanwhile, production costs have surged at the fastest rate since January, driven by rising wages and increased transportation costs due to continuously rising energy prices, resulting in the lowest job vacancy postings in four months.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 88.1609, 88.2682, 88.4528

Source: Investing.com

Buy/Long 1: If the price touches support in the price range of 87.6842 - 87.8689 but cannot break the support at 87.8689, you may set a TP at approximately 88.2682 and SL at around 87.577 or according to your acceptable risk.

Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks the resistance in the price range of 88.1609 - 88.2682, you may set a TP at approximately 88.4528 and SL at around 87.6842 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 1: If the price touches resistance in the price range of 88.1609 - 88.2682 but cannot break the resistance at 88.1609, you may set a TP at approximately 87.6842 and SL at around 88.4528 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks the support in the price range of 87.6842 - 87.8689, you may set a TP at approximately 87.577 and SL at around 88.2682 or according to your acceptable risk.

Pivot point July 12, 2024 09:23 PM. GMT+7