The Australian labor market remains strong. 

The Australian dollar is holding steady today despite the release of robust U.S. economic data. Investors are showing concerns about the U.S. deficit but still anticipate that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in November and December. However, expectations for additional rate cuts next year have been scaled back. Meanwhile, Australian economic data is in focus, with unemployment remaining at 4.1%. Investors are awaiting further information to gauge the future direction of the central bank.

Australia's leading economic index has remained stable for six consecutive months. The growth rate, which indicates economic activity compared to future trends over the next 3 to 9 months, rose to -0.15 in September, up from -0.26 in August. The latest figures continue to point to sluggish domestic economic conditions and the possibility of slower economic growth in the future. However, inflation remains steady, which continues to pressure the economy.

Australia’s unemployment rate was 4.1% in September, with a survey showing that the number of unemployed people decreased by 9,200 to 615,700. Most of the decline in employment occurred among those seeking full-time work, which fell by over 13,900, while part-time job seekers increased. As a result, last month’s unemployment rate didn’t drop significantly, but it was still lower than the market’s expectation of 4.2%.

Inflation in Australia is forecasted to fall to 4.0% in October, down from 4.4% in August, marking the lowest level since 2021. However, government support for energy prices could help bring inflation down further. The central bank has committed to ensuring inflation falls within the target range of 2-3% before making significant interest rate cuts.

The yield on Australia’s 10-year government bonds surged above 4.4%, rising in line with the sharp increase in U.S. bond yields due to the diminishing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the coming months. This is driven by a still-strong U.S. economy. Following the unemployment announcement, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser expressed surprise at the strength of the domestic labor market, which may prompt the RBA to cut interest rates by only 25 basis points later this year.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 1.5091, 1.5121, 1.5158

Source: Investing.com

Buy/Long 1: If the price touches support in the price range of 1.4985 - 1.5023 but cannot break the support at 1.5023, you may set a TP at approximately 1.5121 and SL at around 1.4955 or according to your acceptable risk.

Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks the resistance in the price range of 1.5091 - 1.5121, you may set a TP at approximately 1.5158 and SL at around 1.4985 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 1: If the price touches resistance in the price range of 1.5091 - 1.5121 but cannot break the resistance at 1.4985, you may set a TP at approximately 1.5091 and SL at around 1.5158 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks the support in the price range of 1.4985 - 1.5023, you may set a TP at approximately 1.4955 and SL at around 1.5121 or according to your acceptable risk.

Pivot point October 23, 2024 09:27 PM. GMT+7