Eurozone’s GDP expands only slightly

The euro remains stable as investors closely monitor President Trump's trade policies. Yesterday, Trump announced the implementation of tariffs on various countries, set to take effect as early as April. Meanwhile, investors are hopeful that ongoing negotiations may help prevent further escalation in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Confidence among investors increased after Trump pledged to expedite peace efforts following discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Additionally, he stated that officials from the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine would meet at the Munich Security Conference for further talks.

However, the divergence in monetary policy between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve remains a key factor exerting downward pressure on the euro. The rising inflation rate in the U.S. may lead the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts in an effort to curb inflation. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to continue cutting interest rates to stimulate economic growth within the Eurozone.

The Eurozone economy grew by just 0.1% in Q4 of 2024. While growth was recorded, it was only a slight increase, marking the weakest quarterly expansion of the year. This was largely due to slowing growth in the Eurozone's two largest economies: Germany's GDP contracted by 0.2%, while France's GDP shrank by 0.1%. These figures reflect ongoing economic pressures, including a slowing labor market and continued weakness in the manufacturing sector.

Employment in the Eurozone increased by 0.1% from the previous quarter, reaching 171.17 million people in Q4 2024. This marks the 15th consecutive month of employment growth. The ECB noted that labor markets in most Eurozone countries remain tight, despite slowing down in some regions. Notably, employment in Spain surged by 0.9%, while the Netherlands saw a 0.3% increase. However, Germany's employment remained stagnant for the second consecutive quarter, aligning with the country's ongoing economic downturn.

Retail sales in the Eurozone declined by 0.2% month-on-month in December 2024, following a stable performance in November. The decline was largely driven by a 0.7% drop in food and beverage sales, following a 0.1% decline in the previous month. Meanwhile, sales of non-food products rebounded slightly by 0.3%. In Germany, retail sales contracted sharply by 1.6%, signaling a continued decline in consumer spending power amid the country's economic slowdown. In contrast, other Eurozone countries recorded modest retail growth of around 0.3%.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 0.9528, 0.954, 0.9548

Source: Investing.com

Buy/Long 1: If the price touches support in the price range of 0.95 - 0.9508 but cannot break the support at 0.9508, you may set a TP at approximately 0.954 and SL at around 0.9488 or according to your acceptable risk.

Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks the resistance in the price range of 0.9528 - 0.954, you may set a TP at approximately 0.9548 and SL at around 0.95 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 1: If the price touches resistance in the price range of 0.9528 - 0.954 but cannot break the resistance at 0.9528, you may set a TP at approximately 0.95 and SL at around 0.9548 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks the support in the price range of 0.95 - 0.9508, you may set a TP at approximately 0.9488 and SL at around 0.954 or according to your acceptable risk.

Pivot point  February 14, 2025 11:28 PM. GMT+7