Corn Futures Mixed as Planting Outlook, Ethanol Trends Weigh on Market

Corn futures experienced mixed movement throughout the week. On Tuesday, near-term contracts dropped 2 to 3 cents, while the new crop December contract gained 1/4 cent. Early Wednesday saw further losses of 1 to 3 cents. Preliminary open interest fell by 8,117 contracts, primarily in front-month May. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price declined by 1 3/4 cents to $4.22 before recovering 3 1/2 cents to $4.25 1/2 later in the week. The new crop soy/corn ratio remained at 2.24, favoring corn.

S&P Global estimates U.S. corn plantings for 2025 at 94.3 million acres, up 800,000 acres from previous projections. The March Planting Intention report, due at the end of the month, is expected to provide further clarity. Meanwhile, Turkey introduced a 1 MMT import quota for feed corn at a reduced tariff, influencing market sentiment.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase in ethanol production by 43,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.105 million bpd, while ethanol stocks declined by 801,000 barrels to 26.575 million. Refiner inputs of ethanol rose by 19,000 bpd to 896,000 bpd.

On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), May corn (CK25) settled up 3 1/4 cents at $4.62 per bushel midweek. However, expectations of increased U.S. corn plantings in 2025 pressured prices. Large speculators, who initially held bullish positions, significantly reduced their net long holdings, with money managers selling nearly 218,000 CBOT corn futures and options contracts over five weeks—a record shift from a net long position above 300,000 contracts.

Corn trade remains subdued as the market awaits key month-end USDA data and further tariff developments. CBOT December corn futures (CZ25), representing the upcoming U.S. crop, recently saw a steep decline of nearly 7% over eight sessions ending March 4—the worst early-year downturn since 2011. Despite ongoing volatility, historical trends suggest December corn is likely to return to at least $4.70 per bushel before expiration, aligning with the 2025 insurance guarantee price for U.S. farmers.

Looking ahead, corn futures are expected to remain volatile as traders weigh key fundamental factors, including planting progress, weather conditions, and global trade developments. The upcoming March Planting Intentions report will provide critical insight into U.S. acreage commitments, potentially setting the tone for future price movements. Additionally, any shifts in ethanol production, particularly in response to crude oil price fluctuations or government policy changes, could influence corn demand.

Speculative positioning will also play a role, as recent heavy liquidation by money managers may create room for a potential short-covering rally if bullish catalysts emerge. Technically, corn futures will need to hold key support near $4.50 to prevent further downside, while resistance near $4.70 remains a critical level to watch. Weather-driven supply risks, particularly U.S. drought conditions or disruptions in South American production, could inject additional volatility into the market in the coming months.

Data for Technical Analysis (1H) CFD US Corn Futures - May 25 (ZCK5)

Resistance : 465.81, 466.20, 466.83

Support : 464.55, 464.16, 463.53                                 

1H Outlook   

Source: TradingView      

Buy/Long 1 If the support at the price range 463.05 - 464.55 is touched, but the support at 464.55 cannot be broken, the TP may be set around 466.11 and the SL around 462.30, or up to the risk appetite.

Buy/Long 2 If the resistance can be broken at the price range of 465.81 – 467.31, TP may be set around 468.00 and SL around 463.80, or up to the risk appetite.       

Sell/Short 1 If the resistance at the price range 465.81 – 467.31 is touched, but the resistance at 465.81 cannot be broken, the TP may be set around 464.46 and the SL around 468.06, or up to the risk appetite.

Sell/Short 2 If the support can be broken at the price range of 463.05 - 464.55, TP may be set around 462.40 and SL around 466.56, or up to the risk appetite.       

Pivot Points Mar 20, 2025 03:20AM GMT