The Eurozone is under pressure from U.S. tariffs.

The euro continued to strengthen, rising more than 3.5% compared to the previous week, supported by the turmoil arising from escalating global trade tensions. This has caused investors to worry about a potential recession in several countries around the world. Additionally, investor confidence in U.S. assets has started to decline, even though some U.S. economic indicators remain relatively strong.

President Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension of U.S. import tariff increases to allow room for trade negotiations, although tariffs on Chinese imports were raised by over 145% during the same period. This move was seen as a retaliatory measure after China increased tariffs on U.S. goods by 125%. Meanwhile, the European Union suspended tariffs on U.S. imports.

French President Emmanuel Macron warned that Trump’s decision was only a temporary pause, emphasizing that business confidence would remain under strain.

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, condemned President Trump’s new wave of global import tariffs as a major attack on the global economy. She warned that the tariff increases would create trade uncertainty and cause severe worldwide impacts. The Eurozone is ready to enter negotiations to reach a trade agreement.

Trump’s policy includes a general 10% import tariff, additional tariffs targeting 60 specific countries, and a 25% tariff on automobile imports, all of which have heightened tensions in European industries. Trump claims that these measures are aimed at addressing unfair trade practices.

Retail sales in the Eurozone rose by 0.3% month-on-month in February after three consecutive months of slowdown. Sales of non-food items recovered slightly, rising by 0.3% after a 0.2% drop in January, while sales of food and beverages also increased by 0.3%. The majority of the sales growth came from Spain, Germany, and France.

The Eurozone services PMI rose to 51 in March, up from 50.6 in February, signaling a slight expansion in service sector activity, even though new business volumes showed signs of a slight slowdown. However, employment continued to rise steadily, reaching the highest level since June 2024. On the cost side, input costs rose at the slowest pace in four months. Nonetheless, business confidence continued to decline due to ongoing uncertainty over U.S. tariffs.

The Eurozone industrial producer price index (PPI) increased by over 3% year-on-year in February, marking the highest inflation rate since March 2023. This was mainly driven by a sharp rise in energy costs, which surged by 7.4% compared to 3.4% in January. Other categories also saw increases in production costs. Excluding energy, producer price inflation edged up slightly to 1.4% from 1.3% in the previous month.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 0.8839, 0.8873, 0.8914

Source: Investing.com

Buy/Long 1: If the price touches support in the price range of 0.8721 - 0.8763 but cannot break the support at 0.8763, you may set a TP at approximately 0.8873 and SL at around 0.8688 or according to your acceptable risk.

Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks the resistance in the price range of 0.8839 - 0.8873, you may set a TP at approximately 0.8914 and SL at around 0.8721 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 1: If the price touches resistance in the price range of 0.8839 - 0.8873 but cannot break the resistance at 0.8839, you may set a TP at approximately 0.8721 and SL at around 0.8914 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks the support in the price range of 0.8721 - 0.8763, you may set a TP at approximately 0.8688 and SL at around 0.8873 or according to your acceptable risk.

Pivot point April 11, 2025 10:25 PM. GMT+7