Wall Street Rallies Amid Tariff Swings, Tech and Earnings in Focus

U.S. stocks finished last week on a strong note after one of the most volatile weeks in recent memory. Markets initially swung wildly due to President Donald Trump’s shifting stance on tariffs against China but ended with a sharp recovery after the White House signaled optimism around a potential trade deal. On Friday, Trump expressed hope that China would work toward an agreement, fueling a late-session rally.

Despite steep sell-offs earlier in the week, all three major indexes posted solid weekly gains: the S&P 500 surged 5.7%, its best since November 2023; the Nasdaq jumped 7.3%, the strongest since November 2022; and the Dow gained nearly 5%.

Markets opened the new week positively, driven by relief over temporary exemptions for electronics—such as smartphones and computers—from Trump’s steep 145% reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports. Trump hinted that semiconductor tariffs may still follow, but the temporary exclusions provided much-needed breathing room, particularly for tech stocks with significant China exposure.

By mid-morning Monday, major U.S. indexes were strongly higher: the Dow was up over 400 points, the S&P 500 gained 1.34%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.68%. Information technology led sector gains, up 2.3%. Market volatility remains elevated, though the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) pulled back slightly from its recent eight-month high.

Technology stocks were broadly in focus after Trump’s tariff announcement. Apple (AAPL) led gains among megacaps, rising 5.4% on Monday as investors welcomed the news that its products would avoid punitive tariffs—for now. Tesla (TSLA) also benefited from reduced trade uncertainty. HP (HPQ) gained 4% and Best Buy (BBY) rose 5% on expectations that eased import costs could support hardware demand. Chipmakers joined the rally, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbing 1.1%.

Obesity drugmakers also saw gains after Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) halted development of its weight-loss pill—Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) rose 1%, while Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ:VKTX) jumped 13%.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reported a 15% rise in first-quarter profit, driven by record equities trading revenue amid market volatility. Its earnings beat expectations, pushing its shares up 2%. However, CEO David Solomon warned of a challenging economic environment and the negative effects of tariffs on markets and dealmaking. Goldman’s investment banking division saw weakness, with IPO and M&A activity remaining slow.

Peers JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) also posted solid earnings but flagged risks related to tariff policies. Morgan Stanley remains cautiously optimistic, believing the U.S. may avoid a recession, but concerns persist about slowing earnings and volatile interest rates.

A busy earnings week lies ahead, with reports due from Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), and United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL). Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), which already beat estimates, is expanding its technology banking unit by 20%, citing strong sector momentum. Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) is also scheduled to report.

Strategists remain divided on the U.S. equity outlook. Citigroup (NYSE:C) downgraded U.S. stocks to "neutral" from "overweight" and slashed its S&P 500 year-end target to 5800 from 6500, citing tariff-driven earnings headwinds. It also cut EPS estimates amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Conversely, Morgan Stanley forecasts the S&P 500 to trade between 5000–5500 in a volatile range, driven by long-term yields, Fed policy, and earnings clarity. Strategists highlighted downside risks but noted that a dovish Fed or de-escalation of trade tensions could provide support.

JPMorgan sees potential buying opportunities in the second half of the year but warns that markets have not fully priced in recession risks. With effective U.S. tariff rates now at 23%, valuations remain elevated despite a 13% correction from February highs. JPMorgan advises focusing on defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities while steering clear of high-beta tech stocks until greater policy certainty emerges.

The IMF warned in its upcoming “Global Financial Stability Report” that rising geopolitical tensions—including tariffs, wars, and diplomatic friction—pose significant threats to global markets. Such events, it noted, can trigger average monthly declines of up to 5% in emerging market equities. The IMF also emphasized that the probability of extreme market losses, or “tail risks,” is increasing and urged financial institutions to stress-test portfolios accordingly.

Trump’s tariff agenda is expected to dominate discussions at the upcoming IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick added that the currently exempted goods could still face tariffs within two months. These items make up about 20% of U.S. imports from China.

Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming economic data, particularly March’s industrial production and retail sales figures. First-quarter GDP projections remain weak or negative. However, analysts believe that strong consumer activity—driven by pre-tariff buying—could help prevent a contraction in GDP, at least for now.

Data for Technical Analysis (30Min) CFD US30 DJIA

Resistance : 40494.80, 40549.54, 40638.15

Support : 40317.58, 40262.84, 40174.23              

30Min Outlook

Source: TradingView                  

Buy/Long 1 If the support at the price range 40217.58 - 40317.58 is touched, but the support at 40317.58 cannot be broken, the TP may be set around 40534.17 and the SL around 40167.58, or up to the risk appetite.

Buy/Long 2 If the resistance can be broken at the price range of 40494.80 - 40594.80, TP may be set around 40766.13 and SL around 40267.58, or up to the risk appetite.       

Sell/Short 1 If the resistance at the price range 40494.80 - 40594.80 is touched, but the resistance at 40494.80 cannot be broken, the TP may be set around 40302.21 and the SL around 40644.80, or up to the risk appetite.

Sell/Short 2 If the support can be broken at the price range of 40217.58 - 40317.58, TP may be set around 40070.25 and SL around 40544.80, or up to the risk appetite.       

Pivot Points Apr 14, 2025 05:33PM GMT