China’s Economy Continues to Grow Strongly.

The Chinese yuan strengthened to its highest level in a week after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) was expected to keep interest rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive month. This move reflects the central bank’s commitment to stabilizing the yuan amid rising trade tensions with the United States. At the same time, the Chinese government has significantly increased fiscal spending aimed at boosting domestic demand and countering mounting economic challenges, including U.S. tariffs that continue to pressure Chinese exports. Additionally, the yuan has been supported by a weakening U.S. dollar, influenced by President Donald Trump’s pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.

The PBoC kept interest rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive month at its April meeting, in line with market expectations. The central bank is waiting to assess the impact of the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S. before implementing further economic stimulus measures. This decision comes after China's GDP grew more than expected—5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025 marking the highest growth rate in over two years amid the government's ongoing stimulus efforts.

Unemployment in China dropped to 5.2% in March, down from a two-year high of 5.4% the previous month. Registered agricultural sector workers had an unemployment rate of 5%, while the surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities stood at 5.2%. These figures suggest easing pressure in the labor market, directly supported by government economic stimulus measures.

Fitch Ratings has downgraded its global economic growth forecast, projecting the slowest expansion since 2009. Global growth is expected to fall below 2% this year due to escalating global trade tensions. Fitch cut its 2025 global growth forecast by 0.4% and lowered its growth outlook for both China and the U.S. by 0.5%. U.S. growth is expected to slow to 1.2% year-on-year this year, while China's growth is forecast to drop below 4% this year and next.

President Xi Jinping has called on Vietnam to help maintain the global supply chain amid rising U.S. import tariffs. China currently faces U.S. tariffs as high as 145%, while Vietnam is attempting to avoid 46% tariffs set to take effect in July. In an article published in the Nhandan newspaper, it was warned that there are no winners in trade and tariff wars. Maintaining supply chain stability under U.S. pressure remains a crucial factor in supporting China’s economic growth. Vietnam, while largely importing goods from China, exports a significant portion of its products to the U.S.

Chinese banks issued over 3.64 trillion yuan in new loans in March, surpassing expectations of 3 trillion yuan. This surge reflects the Chinese government’s commitment to intensifying economic stimulus efforts amid growing trade conflicts with the U.S. Household loans, including mortgages, increased by 985.3 billion yuan, rebounding from a drop of 389.1 billion yuan in February. Loans to businesses also soared to 2.84 trillion yuan from 1.04 trillion yuan, highlighting ongoing efforts to stimulate the economy.

Techical analysis data (5H)

Resistance: 7.2936, 7.2951, 7.2981

Source: Investing.com

Buy/Long 1: If the price touches support in the price range of 7.2861 - 7.2891 but cannot break the support at 7.2891, you may set a TP at approximately 7.2951 and SL at around 7.2846 or according to your acceptable risk.

Buy/Long 2: If the price breaks the resistance in the price range of 7.2936 - 7.2951, you may set a TP at approximately 7.2981 and SL at around 7.2861 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 1: If the price touches resistance in the price range of 7.2936 - 7.2951 but cannot break the resistance at 7.2936, you may set a TP at approximately 7.2861 and SL at around 7.2981 or according to your acceptable risk.

Sell/Short 2: If the price breaks the support in the price range of 7.2861 - 7.2891, you may set a TP at approximately 7.2846 and SL at around 7.2951 or according to your acceptable risk.

Pivot point April 21, 2025 10:35 PM. GMT+7